Come the conclusion of the Premier League season on May 25, there will be several teams with cause for celebration — the title winners, those avoiding relegation, those with their potential best-ever finishes, but also those teams who have qualified for Europe.

Last season saw the top six qualify for UEFA competitions, plus eighth-placed Manchester United who were awarded entry to the Europa League after winning the FA Cup.

This year the picture could be very different.

Indeed, there remains the remarkable if very slim possibility that a team that finishes in the bottom half of the table qualifies for Europe via their league placing. Let us attempt to explain…

What are the usual means by which teams would qualify?

Let’s start with the basics.

In a normal season, the clubs who finish in the top four of the Premier League gain entry into the following campaign’s Champions League. This season it was Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool and Aston Villa.

The fifth-placed team would qualify for the Europa League and an additional place is awarded for the FA Cup winners — hence Manchester United this season. The Carabao Cup winners compete in the Europa Conference League play-offs, giving a total of seven European spots.

If the winners of the FA Cup or Carabao Cup have already qualified for UEFA competition courtesy of their Premier League placing, then the respective qualifications can drop to the sixth and seventh placed teams.

Why is the Premier League in line to secure a fifth Champions League place?

As in 2023-24, two of UEFA’s domestic leagues will be rewarded with an extra slot — known as a European Performance Spot (EPS). Last season Germany’s Bundesliga and Italy’s Serie A came top of the seasonal coefficient rankings, allowing Borussia Dortmund and Bologna access to the continent’s most prestigious competition in 2024-25.

This season, it seems almost certain that the Premier League will grab one of those EPS, meaning the division’s top five teams will all qualify for next season’s edition.

However, and just to complicate things from the outset, UEFA only formally allocates the EPS and rebalances access to their three competitions once the domestic season is over and the winners of this year’s Champions League, Europa League and Conference Leagues are known.

So for the purposes of this exercise, and for simplicity’s sake, we are going to reverse the process and apply the EPS from the outset and then work our way through the potential competition winners.

So if England is awarded an EPS then that is five Champions League places. Could there be more?

Well, yes. Potentially. Let’s try to break this down… strap yourself in.

The top four would qualify for the Champions League as normal, and the strong performance of English clubs in Europe this season would secure that EPS. So that’s five.

But if one of the English teams competing in this season’s Champions League goes on and wins the competition, but does not finish in the top five — Aston Villa, 3-1 up after their last-16 first-leg tie over Club Brugge, would be the likeliest candidate given Liverpool and Arsenal are the current top two in the Premier League — then they would qualify as defending European champions. Making six.

And a seventh? Yeah, go on. If Tottenham Hotspur or Manchester United win the Europa League this season then they, too, would qualify for next season’s Champions League. And neither of those clubs looks likely to finish in the top five in the Premier League.

So that is seven clubs potentially in the Champions League, plus two more in the Europa League and one in the Conference League.

GO DEEPER

Why 12 Premier League teams are fighting for a place in next season’s Champions League

This is where things become a bit more complicated.

First of all, let’s deal with the domestic cup competitions. For European qualification to stretch down to 11th place in the Premier League — a position currently held by Crystal Palace, who have never qualified for UEFA competition proper — then both Liverpool and Newcastle United, the Carabao Cup finalists, would have to qualify for Europe via their league position. Which is conceivable.

Normally the FA Cup winner would qualify for the Europa League, but if the team that lifts that trophy on May 17 also qualifies for the Champions League or the Europa League through their league finish, then the spot drops down a place.

And, finally, for a team who finish 11th, and in the bottom half of the table, to stand a chance of securing European qualification through their league placing, they would require Chelsea to complete the clean sweep of English teams winning UEFA competitions by claiming the Conference League this season — not an outlandish suggestion in itself. But they would also have to finish outside the Europa League qualification places in the Premier League.

And all before the EPS is applied by UEFA.

So seven Champions League qualifiers, three Europa League places, and a Conference League spot… meaning 11 clubs in with a shout.

That is ridiculously complicated. Can you paint a picture of it actually happening?

I’m not sure this will make it any easier to understand but, OK, let’s go with this.

Liverpool win the Carabao Cup on Sunday and the Premier League at the end of the season. Arsenal, Nottingham Forest, Manchester City and Newcastle complete the top five and all join Liverpool in the Champions League.

Aston Villa (let’s say they finish ninth) win the Champions League and re-enter that competition next season as defending champions.

Then Manchester United or Tottenham secure a top-half Premier League finish (let’s say 10th, which means they have ousted Fulham from the top half in our scenario) and also win the Europa League, thereby becoming the seventh Champions League qualifiers for next term.

Chelsea finish eighth but win the Conference League to secure their Europa League place via that route. In our example, Brighton & Hove Albion and Bournemouth complete the top 10 and one of them or Manchester City win the FA Cup.

So, in theory, as long as the three UEFA title winners — Villa, Manchester United or Tottenham, and Chelsea — are all outside the Premier League qualification places before the EPS is applied, then that would leave 11th place securing England’s Conference League place.

Here is how it could look

So you’re telling me there’s a chance? 

Well, yes, in theory. All hope is not entirely lost, even if the variables are enough to induce a migraine and any Fulham, Palace, Brentford, Everton or West Ham United fan is very much running the risk of being disappointed if they pin their hopes on this playing out in reality.

So, yes, I’m saying there is, technically, a chance… but it’s an almost infinitesimally small one.

Brentford’s Thomas Frank believes (Nigel French/Sportsphoto/Allstar via Getty Images)

Has anything like this ever happened before?

Not really, but there have been occasions where teams who were not even competing in the Premier League played in Europe.

Ipswich Town enjoyed a UEFA Cup campaign in 2002-03 as a Championship club having been relegated the previous season. They qualified through their Fair Play ranking. The Fair Play coefficient was based on criteria such as positive play, respect for opponents and the referee, the behaviour of team officials and supporters as well as cautions and dismissals. 

The three highest-performing associations were given an additional UEFA Cup/Europa League place for the team which finished highest in their division but had not already qualified for a UEFA competition.

In 2003-04 and 2008-09, Manchester City qualified through their Fair Play ranking, although they were in the Premier League for those seasons. No other team has qualified in that manner after finishing ninth or lower in the Premier League.

The rules changed in 2016 to award prize money instead of an additional entry to the Europa League.

Ipswich’s Chris Makin (left) challenges Slovan Liberec’s Jan Nezmar In a UEFA Cup match in October 2002 (Odd Andersen/AFP via Getty Images)

Millwall were FA Cup runners up to Manchester United in 2004. Sir Alex Ferguson’s United had already qualified for the Champions League by finishing third in the Premier League, meaning the Championship club ventured into the UEFA Cup where they were beaten 4-2 on aggregate by Hungarian champions Ferencvaros in the first round of the UEFA Cup.

Back then, beaten FA Cup finalists were granted the next European spot if the victors had already qualified for UEFA competition.

In 2011-12, Birmingham City — EFL Cup winners — gained entry to the Europa League play-off round despite their relegation to the Championship. They were knocked out in the group stage. 

The 2012-13 FA Cup winners, Wigan Athletic, finished 18th in the Premier League that season and were relegated, but qualified for the 2013-14 Europa League group stages through that 1-0 final victory over Manchester City. They did not progress beyond the initial stage.

Since the establishment of the Premier League in 1992, 22 teams finishing ninth or lower in the Premier League — or not even competing at the top tier of English football — have played in Europe, most of them as a result of winning cup competitions.

(Top photo: Palace could be one of a few mid-table teams praying for European qualification — Sebastian Frej/MB Media/Getty Images)