Businesses in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area should shift from cost-driven globalization to capability-led growth amid global supply chain restructuring, with Hong Kong poised to play a vital role in the process, experts said.

China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) highlighted the need to guide the overseas distribution of industrial and supply chains “in a rational, orderly manner”. It also stated support for Hong Kong to build a commodity trading ecosystem and a high-value-added supply chain service hub.

The push to strengthen supply chain resilience is essential at a time when the world’s economic landscape is undergoing significant transformation amid heightened geopolitical tensions and shifting trade policies, experts said. These uncertainties have increased risks to global industrial and supply chains, including disruptions, over-concentrated industrial links and uneven resource allocation.

For the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, such efforts are particularly crucial, given its highly export-oriented economic structure.

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As one of the country’s most open and economically vibrant regions, the 11-city cluster relies heavily on cross-border trade, international cooperation and global market integration — factors that closely link its economic vitality to the stability and efficiency of industrial and supply chains.

According to the customs, external trade of the nine Guangdong cities in the Greater Bay Area amounted to 9.15 trillion yuan ($1.34 trillion) last year, growing 4.7 percent year-on-year. The figure accounted for one-fifth of China’s total.

Strong policy support has laid a solid ground for sustainable growth of supply chain players in the region.

For Shenzhen Easttop Supply Chain Management Co Ltd, which is based in Shenzhen’s Qianhai special economic zone, the launch of an innovative “global central warehouse” model in the zone enables it to reduce logistics cost for its customers by up to 20 percent, greatly enhancing the company’s competitiveness. The model allows bonded goods and non-bonded goods to be stored and transferred in the same warehouse, addressing the pain point that enterprises had to manage separate warehouses under the traditional model.

“Qianhai’s supervision model is aligned with international standards. The ‘global central warehouse’ model allows multiple modes of trade to operate in one warehouse, which fully meets our global distribution needs for multinational clients,” said Xiao Wen, investor relations manager of Shenzhen Easttop.

“While most of our business involves cross-border factor flows, this internationalized business environment is a core guarantee (for our business growth).”

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China is also stepping up efforts to safeguard its industrial and supply chain security from the legal front. Its first comprehensive regulation in the area, which came into effect early last month, establishes a framework for risk monitoring, emergency reserves and retaliatory measures against foreign sanctions.

Shou Biying, professor of School of Management and Economics at The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, believes “a shift from a cost-driven model of globalization to one anchored in capabilities” is required for businesses in the Greater Bay Area to navigate global supply chain restructuring.

“Competitiveness will depend not only on manufacturing strength, but also on the ability to navigate regulatory environments, manage increasingly digital and intelligent supply chains, and coordinate complex global networks,” she noted.

Shou emphasized that Hong Kong has a “unique and irreplaceable” role to play in supporting such transformation with its financial system, legal expertise and global connectivity.

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Hong Kong can provide critical support for Greater Bay Area companies’ supply chain globalization through cross-border investment, mergers and acquisitions, regional headquarters development, or supply chain finance. It can also serve as a comprehensive platform for professional services, providing firms with support in areas such as tax, arbitration, intellectual property and risk management.

“Closer collaboration between Hong Kong and mainland cities in the Greater Bay Area can strengthen a value chain that spans advanced research, high-end manufacturing, international services and global markets. This integrated approach will enable firms to move up the value chain — from exporting products to exporting technology, standards, brands and services,” Shou said.

E Zhihuan, director of the Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macao Studies, suggests that industrial and supply chains could be advanced through three strategic approaches: Prioritizing countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative as key relocation destinations for whole-industry overseas deployment; innovating relocation models and expanding overseas direct investment based on labor and engineering contracting; leveraging financial tools to drive industrial integration.

“Hong Kong should leverage its offshore renminbi market to facilitate cross-border capital flows, boost renminbi trade settlement with Belt and Road countries, revitalize idle offshore renminbi liquidity, and expand investment reflux channels,” E said.

Roy Ying, senior lecturer of the Department of Marketing at The Hang Seng University of Hong Kong, said the national blueprint for the next five years creates a window for Hong Kong to evolve from a traditional transshipment gateway to a “multinational supply chain command center — a ‘control tower’ for mainland enterprises going global”.

Chinese mainland enterprises are evolving from product-focused exports to full industrial chain expansion overseas, calling for a strategic springboard adept at international norms and global compliance. Hong Kong is well-positioned to take on this role, serving as a “control tower” to oversee overseas business decision-making, data integration and risk monitoring, he pointed out.

“Hong Kong cannot and should not aim to win on price or volume. It must win on legal certainty, capital mobility and dispute resolution speed — all areas where the 15th Five-Year Plan explicitly supports deepening Hong Kong’s unique role.”

Contact the writer at sally@chinadailyhk.com