There’s a trend developing across Greater Manchester. The nature of Local Elections is changing – and it could mean residents’ votes have more power than ever before.

On May 7, residents will head to the polls to choose a new councillor to represent their neighbourhood at their local authority. And for the first time, most areas will have four or five political parties to choose from instead of two or three.

In many areas, voters will need to select from as many as seven possible candidates.

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That’s because the number of candidates has on average increased across the region. The reason for the change is clear – and it could signal a seismic change in the way local politics works.

For the first time, former ‘fringe parties’ Reform UK and The Green Party have fielded candidates in almost every single ward in Greater Manchester. It’s a big shift from the last local poll in 2024, when for instance in Oldham, only two Reform and eight Green candidates stood across the borough – and now both are standing in each of the 20 neighbourhoods.

The biggest overall leap is in Rochdale, where the number of candidates has gone from 92 in 2024 to a whopping 120 this year.

“Something remarkable is happening in British politics. The two‑party system that has dominated Westminster for generations has collapsed,” said Rachel Millward, the deputy leader of the Green Party when asked about the change. “This May, the Green Party is standing more candidates in local elections than at any point in our history.”

And it’s the same story for Reform.

“We are standing a candidate in every ward across Greater Manchester this coming May 7th to give voters a real choice for change and to challenge Labour for control of the councils,” confirmed Dan Barker, Reform’s Manor candidate for Trafford and former mayoral candidate. He added people were ‘sick of the mess’ left behind by mainstream parties.

It’s a sign local elections in Greater Manchester are catching up with the kind of national politics first spotted at the Gorton and Denton by-election in February. Though there’s one key difference.

In some pockets of the region, there’s still a healthy dose of support for independent or hyperlocal groups, adding even more options into what was often a two-horse race in many areas.

“This is local politics catching up with the fragmentation of politics at a national level,” explained Professor Andy Westwood, a local government expert who works at Manchester Uni’s Productivity Institute. “The national polls are moving to a five-way almost equal split. With the Greens winning the Gorton and Denton byelection and a strong showing from Reform, you’d expect both of them to really up their game [for this local election].

“That fragmentation of politics is also happening at a hyperlocal level. In some parts of Greater Manchester we’ve seen that gain pace at several rounds of local elections – places like Oldham, Rochdale, and Bolton, where you’ve seen hyperlocal parties standing and winning seats. Both of those movements will increase the number of candidates. And make it much harder to predict what’s going to happen come May.”

That’s because with more candidates who have similar levels of support, the vote is likely to split in multiple directions. And that means we could see candidates winning with record low vote shares, or by hairpin margins against their competitors.

“For those who do go to the polls, their vote may well be more meaningful,” Prof Westwood continued. “Their choice is likely to matter. Traditionally local election turnout is pretty low, and that means main parties, and now some of the fringe parties, can get over the threshold for election more easily.”

Around a third of all the councillors in Greater Manchester are up for election this year. Apart from Stockport, which is Lib Dem led, most are long-standing Labour councils.

Bolton and Oldham are in no overall control, and are currently led by minority Labour administrations – meaning the Labour group is still the biggest, but doesn’t have more than half of the total number of councillors.

The situation in May could be volatile, Prof Westwood suggests. More Labour councils in Greater Manchester could fall into no overall control. If Labour cedes high numbers of councillors in Oldham and Bolton, they could even end up losing the leadership of those councils if enough opposition councillors can form a coalition to oppose them.

That in turn could have a knock-on effect on the political balance at the Greater Manchester Combined Authority, which is made up of each district’s council leader.

“By the same token, because only a third of seats are up for grabs, that might not be enough for even a very high performing Reform or Green party to take the councils this year,” he added. “But we are likely to see far more fragmentation across individual councils.”

All that is to say that this year especially, every vote counts when it comes to the local elections. Residents have until 11.59pm on Tuesday, April 20, to register to vote.

Polling stations will be open between 7am and 10pm on May 7. You will need a valid form of ID to be able to vote.

The Local Democracy Reporting Service reached out to Labour, the Lib Dems, and the Conservatives, but did not receive a response.