- Gold prices stabilized around $2,655 per ounce today, Thursday, remaining relatively close to their all-time highs as the escalating crisis in the Middle East continues to bolster the metal’s appeal as a safe haven.
- Earlier this week, Iran launched a missile attack on Israel, prompting Israel to intensify strikes across the Middle East and vow to retaliate against Iran.
However, recent strong US jobs data has limited gold’s upward momentum by reducing the need for the Federal Reserve to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy. According to economic data, ADP data indicated that more US private sector jobs were created in September than expected, reinforcing the positive results from the JOLTS report and suggesting that the US Labor market is in better shape than previously thought at the beginning of the third quarter. Now, Financial markets see a 66% chance that the Federal Reserve will opt for a modest 25-basis point interest rate cut in November. Decisively, low interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing bullion assets.
According to licensed trading platforms, demand for the US dollar as a safe haven has increased after Iran launched a ballistic missile attack on Israel and the United States threatened severe consequences for the attack. Demand for gold, oil, and the dollar increased after news reports that the United States warned Israel late on Tuesday that Iran was preparing to launch a ballistic missile attack on Israel.
The intelligence information was accurate, as between 180 and 200 Iranian missiles were launched overnight, with Israel pledging to retaliate against Iran as a result. As a result, global stock markets declined amid growing investor anxiety. In the foreign exchange market, the pound sterling fell 0.66% against the dollar on Tuesday to 1.3284. The euro/dollar pair fell 0.6% to close at 1.1067.
The strength of the US dollar extended into the mid-week session; however, the selling had eased at the time of writing on Wednesday.
For the markets, there are two scenarios to consider:
Financial markets reverse losses and the US dollar gives up gains as tensions in the Middle East tend not to have a lasting impact on the market. In this regard, Jasper Faerestad, senior analyst at Danske Bank, says: “The Iranian missile attack on Israel has increased demand for safe-haven assets, boosting the US dollar and driving up oil and gold prices. This move has largely faded at the end of the session as the reported damage was apparently limited.”
This time is different as this is a major direct attack by Iran on a key US ally.
In the second scenario, the US dollar could extend its recent recovery.
Gold Price Analysis and forecast Today:
According to today’s gold analysts’ forecasts. The gold index is still in a strong upward trend and its recent gains were enough to push all technical indicators towards strong overbought levels, but with the increase and continuation of global geopolitical tensions and the abandonment of tightening by global central banks, the factors for gold gains will remain. Strong and expected profit-taking will not occur without investors’ appetite for risk, calming of wars in the Middle East region and recovery of the US dollar price. Currently, the closest resistance levels for gold are $2670, $2685 and $2700 per ounce, and I do not recommend buying gold from record highs.
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