- For two consecutive trading sessions, the British pound has retreated from its recent highs against the US dollar, but this weakness is likely temporary.
- The GBP/USD price is stabilizing around the support level of 1.3278 at the time of writing the analysis, giving up the gains of the sharp upward shift that reached the resistance level of 1.3444.
- According to licensed trading platforms, the US dollar’s value has risen, and stock markets declined during mid-week trading as investors questioned the weak US GDP report that showed an economic contraction in the first quarter (-0.2% quarter-on-quarter)
US Dollar Stronger Despite Economic Recession
According to Forex market trading, the US dollar has recovered despite the announcement of a US economic recession. As announced, this was its first decline in three years, disappointing markets that had expected a stable reading after the fourth-quarter 2024 reading of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter. According to economic experts, stagflation concerns were reinforced by yesterday’s data, which showed an unexpected contraction in US GDP during the first quarter, alongside a surprisingly large jump in core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices.
At the same time, the disappointment was reflected in the S&P 500 stock index, which is trading lower today along with other major US exchanges. In 2025, the dollar and US stocks have tended to decline together, meaning the US dollar’s rise is surprising and raises questions about whether the dollar is regaining its safe-haven status. It is too early to say for sure, as today is the last day of the month, and end-of-month and quarter flows are likely to affect the market. Currency analysts have indicated that the US dollar is expected to rise.
Trading Tips:
Dear TradersUp follower, keep in mind that the British pound will remain supported by positive sentiment and the good performance of financial markets.
The dollar’s strength also suggests that the US GDP data was not as bad as the headline decline indicates, given some large distortions caused by importers anticipating Trump’s tariffs.
Will GBP/USD Rise in the Coming Days?
Recently, the US dollar’s rally has seen the GBP/USD exchange rate fall further from its three-year high of 1.3444. When it reached this level on Tuesday, we had warned of a strong horizontal resistance level that could cause a setback for the pound. This resistance has proven its strength, and the GBP/USD decline extends below the 1.33 support level. For now, strategists are maintaining a “buy the dip” mentality.
Technical Analysis for the GPB/USD pair today:
On the technical indicator front, according to the performance on the daily timeframe chart, the 14-day RSI is heading towards the midline, confirming the start of downward shifts awaiting more momentum, while the MACD is at the beginning of a downward shift. The performance of GBP/USD today will be affected by the announcement of the UK Manufacturing PMI and Net Lending to Individuals in Britain at 11:30 AM Egypt time. Later, US economic releases will follow, with the US weekly jobless claims announced at 01:30 PM Egypt time, and then the ISM Manufacturing PMI reading at 05:00 PM Egypt time.
In addition, investor sentiment regarding risk appetite will also influence the performance of the British pound against the US dollar in the coming trading hours.
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