Business activity in the US rose, supported by the service sector. The economy expanded by 3.1% in the fourth quarter. The Fed cut rates but projected only 50 bps of cuts in 2025. The AUD/USD weekly forecast suggests renewed downward pressure as the dollar rallies on the outlook of fewer Fed rate cuts in 2025.

Created on December 22, 2024 Gold Gold market participants have been through a lot over the last couple of days, as we go back and forth quite rapidly. That being said, the reality is that we are heading into the holiday season, and therefore I think you’ve got a situation where liquidity will be thin,

Fundamental Analysis & Market Sentiment I wrote on 15th December that the best trade opportunities for the week were likely to be: Long Bitcoin in USD terms following a daily (New York) close above $103,647. This set up on Sunday but Bitcoin then fell by 7.63%. Short of the EUR/USD currency pair following a daily

Created on December 22, 2024 The EUR/USD went into this weekend within sight of 1.04300, which may be considered a good achievement after having a hit a low around the 1.03400 mark on late Wednesday and once again Friday. The EUR/USD is struggling to create a sustained move higher. The same cannot be said for

Created on December 22, 2024 WTI Crude Oil went into the weekend near the 69.500 USD mark, this as a two week stretch of holiday trading is looking speculators in the eyes as they decide if they want to participate. The last week of trading provided oil traders with a rather comfortable price range to

USD/CAD’s up trend continued to as high as 1.4466 last week but retreated after breaching 1.4391 projection level. Initial bias is turned neutral this week for consolidations first. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.4177 resistance turned support holds. Break of 1.4466 and sustained trading above 1.4391 will pave the way to retest 1.4667/89

Jupyter Notebook Two valid methods to combine macro trading factors into a single signal are “conceptual parity” and machine learning. Conceptual parity takes a set of conceptually separate normalized factors and gives them equal weights. Machine learning optimizes models and derives weights sequentially, potentially with theoretical restrictions. Both methods support realistic backtests. Conceptual parity works

US data on sales, business activity and GDP growth all revealed a robust economy. Canada’s inflation rose more than expected, but sales missed forecasts. Fed policymakers forecast fewer-than-expected rate cuts in 2025. The USD/CAD weekly forecast shows a divergence in policies between the Fed and the BoC that has hurt the loonie. Ups and downs

EUR/USD has breached the support level at 1.05500, and selling momentum has strengthened the current downtrend in the chart.   The Federal Reserve (Fed) has emphasized slowing down the pace of interest rate cuts, a move that could be crucial in maintaining the strength of the U.S. dollar over the long term.   EUR/USD has

The Bank of Japan held their interest rate at 0.25% as widely expected, and there is little expectation for them to fire up their hawkish engines by any meaningful degree soon. The Bank of England also meets shortly and is also likely to hold their interest rate, at a much higher 4.75%. And recent data

Created on December 19, 2024 Bearish View Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.2490. Add a stop-loss at 1.2800. Timeline: 1-2 days. Bullish View Set a buy-stop at 1.2715 and a take-profit at 1.2800. Add a stop-loss at 1.2500. The GBP/USD pair remained on edge after the UK published the November consumer

On 17th December, analysing the Nasdaq 100 chart (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen), we: → Drew a blue upward channel relevant for 2024; → Noted that the price was near the upper boundary of the channel, while the RSI indicator had entered the overbought zone; → Suggested that bulls might face difficulties in pushing

The BOJ held their interest rate at 0.25%, but it seems there was still some hope they might have raised rates, given the yen’s response. Even if the odds of a hike yesterday were greatly diminished, just a few weeks ago the odds firmly backed one. Furthermore, their tone was quite dovish, indicating that the

US Dollar Outlook: EUR/USD EUR/USD appears to be defending the yearly low (1.0333) as it rebounds from a fresh monthly low (1.0343), with the recovery in the exchange rate keeping the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 30. US Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Defends Yearly Low to Keep RSI Above 30 EUR/USD may track the November range

Created on December 20, 2024 During my analysis of Bitcoin, the first thing that comes to attention is the fact that the $100,000 level continues to be very important. This is obviously a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and I would venture to say there are probably a lot of options traders willing to get

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Created on December 20, 2024 As you can see, the Euro initially did rally against the US dollar during the trading session on Thursday, but it has been slapped right back down. I think it’s probably only a matter of time before the Euro drops down to the parity level, possibly lower than that, because

Australia financial regulator ASIC has reported that the Australia Federal Court has unveiled another side of the bankruptcy of former AFS licensed CFDs broker USGFX, indicating that the “unconscionable conduct” that led to the demise of USGFX went well beyond its own four walls. The 2020 bankruptcy of USGFX operator Union Standard International Group Pty

Three BoE policymakers were ready to lower borrowing costs. Data revealed that UK retail sales missed forecasts, increasing by 0.2%. The US economy expanded by 3.1% in the fourth quarter, above estimates of 2.8%. The GBP/USD outlook shows growing enthusiasm among pound bears as Bank of England rate cut expectations increase. At the same time,

Canada’s new Finance Minister, Dominic Leblanc, took office, restoring political calm. The US economy grew by 3.1% in the fourth quarter. US jobless claims dropped more than expected last week. The USD/CAD price analysis suggests political calm in Canada, which has given the loonie some strength against the shining dollar. Meanwhile, market participants eagerly await