Everton could have scored the resulting penalty, and perhaps
have come away with a 1-1 draw, meaning Manchester City would have
topped the table at Christmas instead of Arsenal.

Now this is a terribly simplistic way of looking at things, as
quite obviously Arsenal could have gone on to regain the lead and
held on in such a hypothetical scenario, but it does show that luck
is needed occasionally in a Premier League title race.

That luck was certainly on display in their last home game too,
with Arteta’s side needing two own goals against arguably the worst
Premier League side of all time to defeat Wolves 2-1 on 13
December, including one deep into stoppage-time.

But let’s be clear – Arsenal deserved their victory this weekend
on the balance of play. They restricted Everton to just five shots
worth only 0.20 xG, with only one hitting the target, and had 30
more touches in the opposition box than their hosts (43-13).

Something will need to be different for Arsenal to win the
Premier League title this time around, though. They’ve failed to
win the league on the four previous occasions they’ve been top at
Christmas in the Premier League era, while they’ve also led the
league in or after December in two of the previous three
seasons.

Man City have successfully chased down bigger deficits than
this, and Arsenal will need to keep lady luck on their side for the
remaining months of 2025-26.

Newcastle’s Inability to Keep Leads Will Prevent
Them Qualifying for Europe

When Newcastle
United went into the half-time break 2-0 up against Chelsea
thanks to Nick Woltemade’s brace, Magpies fans could have been
forgiven for thinking they’d cruise to victory in the second
half.

Chelsea looked out of sorts, struggling to create anything in
front of goal but also allowing Eddie Howe’s side plenty of good
opportunities. Newcastle had six Opta-defined ‘big chances’ in the
opening 45 minutes of the match – the most of any side in a Premier
League game before half-time this season.

But then it happened again, Newcastle took their foot off the
pedal and allowed the opposition back into the game.

It’s now 13 points dropped from winning positions this season
for the Magpies – a joint-high in the Premier League alongside
Brentford. Add in UEFA Champions League games (five more points
dropped), and that’s 18 points dropped from winning positions
across 23 matches.

Since the start of November, Newcastle have played 11 matches in
the Premier League and dropped 15 points from winning positions,
losing three games they were ahead in and drawing another
three.

Admittedly, they are only five points off the top five as we
head into Christmas – undoubtedly helped by a crazily bunched
middle section of the Premier League – but if Newcastle can’t
improve their ability to hold on to a lead in the second half of
the campaign, you have to feel it’s going to be a disappointing
season for the club.

Manchester United Don’t Need to Buy Fernandes Cover
(Just Yet)

Manchester
United being without Bruno
Fernandes is a very rare occurrence since the Portuguese signed
for the club in January 2020 from Sporting CP.

Since his United debut on 1 February 2020, Fernandes is the only
Premier League player to have played 300+ competitive games at club
level (308) and has missed just 17 of United’s 325 matches in all
competitions. His remarkable availability for the Red Devils has
seen him miss just three games due to injury or illness in almost
six years.

That number will increase in the upcoming weeks, though, as the
Man Utd captain suffered a hamstring injury and was substituted off
at half-time of the 2-1 defeat at Aston Villa on Sunday.

The injury comes at a bad time for United, who are already
missing a trio of key players thanks to their involvement at the
Africa Cup of Nations, while they play seven competitive games
between now and the end of January, when Fernandes is expected to
be near a return.

United could bring somebody in during the January transfer window,
but replacing Fernandes will be expensive and most probably only
short-term. So, why not try and use what is already available?

Casemiro will return from suspension on Boxing Day for the clash
against Newcastle, while the injury that kept Kobbie Mainoo out of
the defeat at Villa appears to be minor, allowing him to return to
action soon enough. Mainoo is quite clearly not at the forefront of
Amorim’s tactical plans at United, but his talent is obvious and
previous appearances for the first team suggest he can be
trusted.

Lisandro Martínez replaced Fernandes as a makeshift defensive
central midfielder at Villa Park and performed admirably, keeping
it simple with the ball and successfully completing 29 of his 32
passes (91%) while also regaining possession from the opponents
three times in 45 minutes.

Then you have the option of throwing in young players at the
deep end. Darren Fletcher enjoyed an illustrious career at United,
winning five Premier League titles and the 2007-08 UEFA Champions
League under Alex Ferguson. His two sons, Jack and Tyler, have both
impressed in Premier League 2 for the United under-21 side this
season, and 18-year-old Jack even came off the bench to make his
Premier League debut at Villa.

United pride themselves on bringing through young talent, so
maybe this is an ideal chance to show what the next crop of academy
prospects can do.

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