Quick overview
- Amazon and Apple earnings are set to be released today, following positive results from Microsoft and Meta.
- Crude oil prices fell sharply despite a significant inventory drop, while gold retreated from recent highs amid renewed optimism about global trade talks.
- US Treasury yields decreased slightly, while the dollar showed mixed performance against various currencies amid mixed macroeconomic data.
- Bitcoin rebounded sharply after a period of volatility, breaking through key resistance levels and consolidating near $95,000.
Today we have the Amazon and Apple earnings, which follow positive results from Microsoft and Meta yesterday, with AMZN already up after hours.
Crude Falls Despite Inventory Drop, Gold Retreats From Record Highs
Crude oil prices fell sharply, with WTI crude dropping $2.50 to settle at $58 per barrel, even as EIA data revealed a significant drawdown in inventories. The decline appears to reflect broader market caution and deflationary concerns rather than supply constraints.
Gold also experienced a notable retreat, falling by $28 to $3,287 per ounce. The move came after a volatile two-week stretch in which the precious metal soared to a new high of $3,444 per ounce, driven by Fed Chair Powell’s dovish tone and heightened geopolitical tensions. However, renewed optimism about global trade talks tempered that bullish momentum, pushing gold back under the $3,300 level.
Treasury Yields and Dollar Diverge Amid Mixed Macro Data
Yesterday we had some surprising Q1 earnings results from Meta (FCB) and Microsoft, which helped send the META and FCB stock prices higher in the after hours trading. The Amazon (AMZ) share price also increased, gaining 3.5% after the close. Later today we will get the Amazon Q1 earnings data.
The US 10-year Treasury yield edged lower by 1.2 basis points to 4.16%, in line with recent dovish shifts in rate expectations following softer-than-expected GDP and ADP employment data.
Despite this, the US dollar strengthened, particularly against European currencies, although it showed weakness versus commodity-linked currencies like the Australian and Canadian dollars. The dollar’s mixed performance came as markets digested month-end positioning and a light but influential Chinese report suggesting a re-engagement in US trade dialogue.
Stocks Climb Back After Sharp April Selloff
Yesterday we had the earnings from Microsoft and Meta, which were positive in Q1 and with potiive forecasts for Q2 of 2025, sending stock prices higher after the close. Major US indices staged a dramatic rebound from steep early-April losses. After the S&P 500 and Nasdaq plummeted more than 15% in the first week of April, both indexes recovered nearly all those losses by month-end.
The Nasdaq closed the month up 0.85%, while the S&P 500 was down just 0.77%. In today’s trading, stocks opened lower and briefly declined further, before reversing course and finishing close to their opening levels—mirroring the broader recovery pattern seen this month.
Slowing PCE and GDP Add to Rate Speculation
Core PCE inflation data showed clear deceleration through the quarter: +0.337% in January, +0.498% in February, and just +0.028% in March. While some argue this trend could be distorted by higher inflation reported in the GDP print, it reinforces a growing narrative that price pressures are easing, though perhaps not fast enough to trigger an imminent Fed rate cut.
The Canadian dollar (loonie) gained some ground, helped by positive sentiment following former President Trump’s favorable comments about Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney and an expected meeting with Canada’s new prime minister.
Today’s Market Outlook: Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Today we have ore earnings report before the US markets open and after the close. Eli Lilly (LLY), Mastercard (MA) and McDonald’s (MCD) earnings report will be released before the open, while Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL) and Airbnb (ABNB) figures will be released after the close.
Earlier today, the Bank of Japan kept its policy rate steady at 0.50% in this week’s meeting, reflecting caution amid global trade uncertainties and a stronger yen. Nonetheless, strong domestic growth and inflation above target suggest a rate hike may still be on the table later this year. Traders will be closely watching any revisions to the BoJ’s economic projections.
US ISM manufacturing PMI expectations have dropped from 49.0 to 48.0, pushing the index deeper into contractionary territory. High borrowing costs, tepid demand, and revived tariff fears continue to weigh on manufacturing sentiment.
On the labor front, non-farm payroll growth is projected to ease to 129K from 228K in the prior month. While job postings and service sector data suggest weakening hiring appetite, layoffs remain minimal, helping to hold the unemployment rate steady at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 0.3%, unchanged from previous readings.
Last week, markets were chaotic, with gold soaring $500 in the final three days, the EUR/USD surging 5 cents, and stock markets opening down before turning upward. The moves were big, and the volatility was enormous, so we opened 40 trading signals in total, finishing the week with 25 winning signals and 15 losing ones.
Gold Swings Sharply as Sentiment Shifts
Gold prices displayed significant volatility over the past two weeks. The metal initially surged above $3,500 per ounce, but quickly reversed course, dropping by $250. This abrupt correction reflected market hesitation amid uncertain macroeconomic conditions.
However, sentiment shifted once again after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered dovish remarks, signaling a potentially more accommodative stance on interest rates. In addition, rising global geopolitical tensions reignited demand for safe-haven assets. As a result, gold regained bullish momentum, climbing back above $3,300 and hitting a new all-time high of $3,444—marking a more than $500 recovery from its recent low.
That rally proved short-lived as renewed optimism surrounding international trade negotiations applied pressure on the metal, pulling prices back below the $3,300 threshold. Nevertheless, gold remains within a broader uptrend, buoyed by macroeconomic uncertainty and inflation concerns.
Australian Dollar Attempts Recovery after Softer CPI Inflation But Faces Resistance
The Australian dollar has endured a steep drop, losing roughly 13 cents since late 2024. The AUD/USD pair recently dipped below the key 0.60 level before staging a mild rebound to the 0.6440 region, supported by a temporary delay in US trade tariffs.
Still, technical resistance at the 100-day SMA remains firm, capping upside momentum. The longer-term outlook remains uncertain, with external trade and global sentiment playing a decisive role.
GBP/USD – Weekly Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Rebounds Sharply Above Key Levels
Bitcoin also endured a period of heightened volatility. After plunging below $75,000 and testing support at its 50-week moving average, the cryptocurrency mounted an aggressive rebound. The recovery was supported partly by renewed enthusiasm around technological innovation and partly by political commentary, notably campaign rhetoric from former President Donald Trump, which appeared to energize investor sentiment.
Bitcoin eventually broke through the crucial 100-day moving average, triggering a sharp rally that sent it past $93,000. The digital asset is now consolidating near the $95,000 level, suggesting a pause before its next move.
BTC/USD – Weekly chart
Ripple (XRP) Holds Ground with Bullish Setup
Ripple (XRP) maintained relative stability despite the broader crypto market turbulence. After bouncing from critical support between $1.80 and $2.20, XRP is currently trading at the upper end of that range. It is holding above its 50-day moving average, and technical indicators point to the potential for further gains if sentiment across altcoins remains constructive.
XRP/USD – Daily Chart
Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank’s local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
