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Skerdian Meta•Thursday, March 27, 2025•3 min read
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As trade tariffs become reality, the USD is regaining its footing while stock markets retreated yesterday and will likely repeat the price action today.
Broader US market indices faced pressure due to rising inflation concerns and looming tariffs, pushing yields higher. Despite three consecutive days of gains, the S&P500 and Nasdaq struggled to maintain momentum. Copper prices continued their ascent, reaching a new all-time high of $5.37 before pulling back slightly.
President Donald Trump imposed 25% tariffs on all imported vehicles while granting a one-month exemption for auto parts. He has also expressed support for 20-25% tariffs on European imports. Trump reiterated that foreign companies would establish manufacturing plants in the US, and an advisor confirmed that tariffs on light vehicles would also be introduced, with another round of tariffs expected on April 2.
The US dollar strengthened broadly, while equity markets declined, led by a 2% drop in the Nasdaq as tech stocks took a hit following yesterday’s announcement of 20% tariffs on Chinese tech exports. Auto manufacturers, including Ford and General Motors, saw further declines after the market closed due to concerns over upcoming tariffs.
Today’s Forex Events
The US Jobless Claims report remains a crucial weekly indicator, offering real-time insight into labor market conditions. Since 2022, initial claims have remained within the 200K-260K range, while continuing claims have stayed close to cycle highs. This week, initial claims are expected to reach 225K, slightly above last week’s 223K, while continuing claims are projected at 1,896K compared to the previous 1,892K.
Last week the volatility was high, but there were quite a few reversals as well, as the USD started to make a comeback after crashing down for several weeks. We opened many trading signals as a result, 43 in total, ending the week with 24 winning signals and 19 losing ones.
Gold Range Narrows Before Breakout
Gold prices continue their steady climb despite mixed economic signals. While a $4,000 price target for gold once seemed unrealistic, XAU/USD reaching $3,057 on Wednesday has made that projection increasingly plausible. However, a brief dip below $3,002 triggered a buy signal, which proved profitable as gold rebounded off the 50-day SMA, a key support level.
XAU/USD – H4 Chart
AUD/USD Resumed Downtrend
The AUD/USD pair has been under consistent downward pressure, losing nearly 8 cents in Q4 2024 due to the US dollar’s strength. In early February, the pair briefly dropped below 0.61 before reversing as delays in US trade tariffs triggered a sharp recovery, lifting AUD/USD above 0.64 by late February. Despite the rebound, the 100-day SMA acted as a strong resistance level, halting further gains and sending the pair back lower. Additionally, the implementation of US trade tariffs on China, Australia’s biggest trading partner, added to the Australian dollar’s weakness. The initial reaction to tax cut news lifted AUD/USD by 50 points, but the gains were short-lived.
USD/JPY – Weekly Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Can’t Reach $90K
Bitcoin saw a $5,000 surge in midweek following the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance. However, despite President Trump’s vocal support for cryptocurrencies, the rally lost momentum. BTC/USD faced resistance at the 20-day SMA, reinforcing it as a key technical level. The 200-day SMA now serves as support, and a failure to hold above this level could lead to further declines. If Bitcoin manages to break above the 20-day SMA, it could gain momentum toward the $90,000 mark.
BTC/USD – Daily chart
Ripple XRP Returns Below $2.50
Ripple (XRP) experienced a strong rally as CEO Brad Garlinghouse announced that the long-running SEC lawsuit against the company had finally been resolved. The news pushed XRP above $2.58, briefly testing resistance at the 50-day SMA. However, buyers struggled to maintain the upward momentum, leading to a retreat below $2.50 by the session’s close. Despite the pullback, Ripple remains the third-largest cryptocurrency, with a market capitalization of $146 billion.
XRP/USD – Daily Chart
Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank’s local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
