EURUSD is showing relief today after an aggressive selloff at the start of March, but the structure continues to favor shorts.
Watch the video below for the details.
EURUSD hit a critical support area this week, and that’s where things get interesting.
On the weekly chart, the last major BOS was lower, and the price has been trading in OTE from the external high to the external low for some time.
That higher-time-frame context matters, even if you’re trading the hourly.
On the daily, we’ve been printing higher highs and higher lows, and as long as we’re holding above the current external low, the structure remains intact.
That puts EURUSD at a key level right now.
On the 4-hour chart, price is reacting at channel support and trading at a discount relative to the most recent external high.
We had an aggressive drop and an hourly BOS, so sellers have been in control, but I was looking for a retrace into imbalance to get short, and we never got it.
I don’t chase, and one of my STACK rules is that I can’t short in discount.
If the price is below the 50% line of the range, I’m not selling.
Right now, we’re still below that 50% level, so for me, shorts are off the table until we get a move back into premium and a mitigation of the imbalance above.
On the 15-minute chart, we’ve already seen an internal change of character and some early relief.
That doesn’t make the market bullish, but it does suggest we could see a deeper retrace before any continuation lower.
If EURUSD is going to rebalance inefficiencies, 1.1660 is key, and above that, 1.1760 becomes the next level to watch.
From here, it’s about patience and structure.
