Bullish view
- Buy the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.100.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0700.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0700.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.100.
The EUR/USD exchange rate continued soaring as the US dollar index and American equities plunged ahead of the upcoming US inflation data. It rallied to a high of 1.0900, its highest level since November 5 last year, and 6.45% above the lowest level this year.
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US inflation data ahead as recession risks remain
The EUR/USD pair has been in a strong bullish trend in the past few months, with the momentum gaining strength recently. This surge accelerated as investors started predicting a potential recession in the US because of Donald Trump’s policies.
Trump has added a 25% tariff on goods imported from the top trading partners like Mexico and Canada. He also added a 20% tariff on imported goods from China, blaming the countries of allowing fentanyl to the United States. All these countries have retaliated against the US.
Trump has also hinted that he would impose further reciprocal tariffs in April. These are huge tariffs that may trigger a recession to the US. This explains why the US dollar index and bond yields have plunged in the past few days. The US dollar index has dropped from $110 earlier this year to $103.
The next important catalyst for the EUR/USD pair will be the upcoming US inflation data scheduled on Wednesday. Data by Investing estimates that the headline inflation dropped to 2.9% in February, while the core CPI retreated to 3.2%.
These inflation numbers may not paint the clearest picture about US prices since they will not include the recent tariffs. Analysts expect that the headline consumer prices will keep rising as the impact of tariffs rise.
EUR/USD technical analysis
The daily chart shows that the EUR/USD exchange rate bottomed at 1.0177 on January 13. It has bounced back to 1.0900, the highest swing since November 6.
The pair has jumped above the crucial resistance level at 1.0605, its lowest level in April last year. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD indicators have continued rising, a sign that it has the momentum.
The Average Directional Index (ADX) has jumped to 22.2, its highest level since January 31. This is a popular indicator that measures the strength of an asset. Therefore, the pair will likely keep rising as bulls target the key resistance level at 1.1000. A drop below the support at 1.0700 will invalidate the bullish view.
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