EUR/USD Forecast: Bullish Momentum Amid ECB-Fed Divergence, Weaker ADP

  • The EUR/USD forecast remains bullish as the dollar weakened further following the release of dismal ADP and Services PMI data.
  • The ECB’s neutral monetary policy diverges from easing Fed support, with EUR/USD poised for upside.
  • Markets await the US Jobless Claims and PCE inflation report data ahead.

The EUR/USD forecast edges higher as the US dollar remains consistently weaker under the weight of dovish Fed expectations and softening US data. The Dollar Index has slipped below the 99.00 mark, and further pressure suggests odds of a deep downside to the 97.00 region.

Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide-

The weakening trend in the greenback supports the EUR/USD holding firm around 1.1650 after eight consecutive bullish sessions. The price is now at the strongest level since mid-October. Analysts anticipate that persistent upside pressure could push the prices to the 1.17-1.18 range in the near term.

The US dollar backdrop remains fragile as the recent ADP Employment Change revealed a sharp reduction of 32,000 jobs, compared with expectations of a modest gain. The data shows another sign of a cooling labor market, significantly strengthening the odds of a 25 bps rate cut in next week’s meeting. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a probability of a rate reduction of nearly 90%, which reduces the yield support for the greenback.

On the other hand, the ECB remains firm in a neutral stance, with markets assessing a 94% probability that the ECB will leave interest rates unchanged at its December 16 meeting. ECB President Lagarde reiterated that inflation is expected to stay near the 2% target, stabilizing the “hold” narrative. The euro appears steadier and more attractive to investors as the Fed-ECB divergence becomes more apparent.

EUR/USD Key Events Ahead:

Traders are now focusing on today’s US Jobless Claims data, Challenger layoffs, and Friday’s PCE inflation report. These figures will be crucial in shaping next week’s pivotal Fed decision.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast: Bullish Path of Least Resistance

EUR/USD Technical ForecastEUR/USD Technical Forecast
EUR/USD 4-hour chart

The EUR/USD 4-hour chart indicates a lack of momentum, even after the pair breaks the resistance level at 1.1650. The price is now retesting the resistance that has turned into support. However, the RSI remains near the overbought zone, suggesting further consolidation.

Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide-

The 20-period MA near 1.1635 remains a solid support for the pair. A sustained upside could aim for a test of 1.1725, October’s swing high. On the other hand, a move below 1.1635 could push the price to 1.1600, ahead of 1.1550.

Looking to trade forex now? Invest at eToro!

67% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Source link

Visited 1 times, 1 visit(s) today

Related Article

Price of Silver Recovering After Two-Day Decline

Price of Silver Recovering After Two-Day Decline

As can be seen on the XAG/USD chart, the price of silver is recovering after forming yesterday’s low below the $79 level. The price per ounce has already exceeded $86 today (+10% in less than 24 hours!). Volatility in the silver market is being driven by fluctuations in the US dollar, as well as military

EURUSD 2026 03 04 13 44 10

EURUSD: Why This Relief Rally Is A Trap

EURUSD is showing relief today after an aggressive selloff at the start of March, but the structure continues to favor shorts. Watch the video below for the details. EURUSD hit a critical support area this week, and that’s where things get interesting. On the weekly chart, the last major BOS was lower, and the price

360T’s Crypto-Asset Trading Platform 3DX Partners with BridgePort for Off-Exchange Settlement

FRANKFURT, Germany and NEW YORK, March 4, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — 3DX, a crypto-asset trading platform powered by 360T’s award-winning technology, today announced its partnership with BridgePort, a middleware layer designed to enhance institutional crypto market infrastructure. This collaboration adds new capital efficiency possibilities to the 3DX platform, addresses settlement risk, and complements the capabilities that were

ISDA, EMTA Revise Definitions for FX Derivatives

ISDA, EMTA Revise Definitions for FX Derivatives

ISDA and EMTA, Inc., the trade association for emerging markets, have jointly published a revised set of standard definitions for foreign exchange (FX) derivatives transactions, which update key market practices and consolidate various FX and FX-related product templates and provisions into an integrated document. The 2026 FX Definitions will be implemented on November 22, 2027,

Gets Crushed on Monday as Trade

Gets Crushed on Monday as Trade

Created on March 03, 2026 Silver initially spiked following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran but quickly reversed, as traders wrongly assumed it was the “end of the world”, and that the previous rush into the market was going to happen again. Silver Well, after the announcement over the weekend that the United States had

Forex Economic Calendar Overview: Key Events for the Next Trading Week (09.03.2026–15.03.2026) | LiteFinance

Forex Economic Calendar Overview: Key Events for the Next Trading Week (09.03.2026–15.03.2026)

2026.03.03 2026.03.04 Weekly Economic Calendar for 09.03.2026–15.03.2026 Jana Kanehttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/jana-kane/ Markets remain highly volatile, as geopolitical risks continue to outweigh both fundamental factors and technical analysis. In such a tense geopolitical climate, even the most important macroeconomic data becomes less influential. For now, the priority is to remain cautious and treat the current environment as a

British Forex Forecast 03/03: Pound Continues to Languish

British Forex Forecast 03/03: Pound Continues to Languish

Created on March 03, 2026 The British pound gapped lower to kick off the trading session on Monday with the massive “risk off” trade in effect. British Pound The British pound gapped lower to kick off the trading session on Monday as we continue to see a lot of questions asked about the potential expansion

Interactive Brokers registers 21% Y/Y increase in DARTs in February 2026

Interactive Brokers registers 21% Y/Y increase in DARTs in February 2026

Electronic trading major Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:IBKR) has just posted its key operating metrics for February 2026. The brokerage registered 4.366 million Daily Average Revenue Trades (DARTs) in February 2026, 21% higher than in February 2025 and 1% lower than in January 2026. Ending client equity reached $820.0 billion, 40% higher than prior year

The Last Look... - The Full FX

The Last Look… – The Full FX

Categorised: The Position, Top Story | Tags: CLS, CME, EBS, FX, Harmony, internalisation, liquidity, LPs, market functioning, Market structure, non-banks, outage, redundancy, robustness, spreadsPosted by Colin Lambert. Last updated: March 2, 2026 It’s always, well, sometimes, nice when a central bank agrees with you. That was the case going through the Swiss National Bank paper

The currency market is pricing in a supply-side inflation shock

Global currencies swung widely on Tuesday as foreign exchange traders priced in the effects of an increasingly broad supply-side inflationary shock resulting from the Iran war. The US dollar index (DX-Y.NYB) jumped more than 1% in early trading, while the euro fell nearly 1% against the greenback and sterling slid about 0.8%. The dollar also

Marex reports solid Q4 2025 financial performance metrics

Marex reports solid Q4 2025 financial performance metrics

Diversified global financial services platform Marex Group plc (NASDAQ:MRX) today reported the Group’s preliminary unaudited financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025 (Q4 2025). Revenue increased by $156.5 million to $572.1 million (Q4 2024: $415.6m), reflecting strong performance across all operating segments. The largest contribution came from Agency and Execution (+$98.2m), supported by Market

Kraken launches NinjaTrader Connect platform for Prediction Markets

Kraken launches NinjaTrader Connect platform for Prediction Markets

Chicago based retail futures trading firm NinjaTrader, now a unit of Kraken parent Payward Inc, is getting into the ever-expanding Prediction Markets business. The company has announced the launch of NinjaTrader Connect, an end-to-end infrastructure platform that enables fintechs, brokerages, and trading platforms to offer regulated futures and prediction markets. NinjaTrader Connect provides broad market

Fragmented Markets Signal Bet Against “Forever War” Scenario

Fragmented Markets Signal Bet Against “Forever War” Scenario

The global market reaction to the escalating conflict in the Middle East remains remarkably fragmented. U.S. equities successfully staged a “buy-the-dip” recovery overnight after an initial selloff. Both S&P 500 and NASDAQ closed with modest gains. In contrast, Asian markets told a darker story. South Korea’s Kospi tumbled nearly -5% as it caught up with

Taurex gets $40 million capital injection from shareholder Oscar Hilt Tatum IV

Taurex gets $40 million capital injection from shareholder Oscar Hilt Tatum IV

Retail FX and CFDs broker Taurex has announced that the company successfully completed its Series C funding round, securing a $40 million capital injection to support its next phase of growth. The round was led by major shareholder Oscar Hilt Tatum IV, reinforcing strong long-term confidence in the company’s strategy and performance. The raised capital

DXtrade integrates theScreener investment intelligence and research

DXtrade integrates theScreener investment intelligence and research

Trading technology developer Devexperts has announced that its DXtrade flagship multi-asset trading platform and Switzerland based data analysis and intelligence provider theScreener have entered into a new partnership. Through the partnership, theScreener’s client‑centric investment intelligence and research will now be available via DXtrade. The integration will see brokers licensing DXtrade able to enrich their offering

EURJPY Elliott Wave: Corrective Pullback Confirms Bullish Trend

EURJPY Elliott Wave: Corrective Pullback Confirms Bullish Trend

The short-term Elliott Wave structure in EURJPY continues to indicate a bullish trend. Examination of the 45‑minute chart reveals that the pullback from the wave ((iii)) high unfolded in three distinct waves. This formation suggests a corrective nature rather than the beginning of a larger reversal. Thereby, it supports the expectations of further upside momentum.

Surging oil prices are rewriting the logic of forex trading! Wall Street’s bearish bets on the US dollar are beginning to waver.

JPMorgan’s bearish stance on the US dollar is being challenged by the significant threat of oil prices potentially breaking through $100. According to Zhitong Finance, the foreign exchange strategy team at JPMorgan, a Wall Street financial giant, stated that as military conflicts between the United States-Israel and Iran continue to escalate, causing significant disruptions to

AUD/JPY breaks high after hawkish RBA shift, 113.22 next

AUD/JPY breaks high after hawkish RBA shift, 113.22 next

Australian Dollar rallied broadly after RBA Governor Michele Bullock delivered hawkish remarks that reintroduced a genuine possibility of a rate hike at the March meeting. By describing the decision as “live” and warning against assuming a hold, Bullock unsettled prior market consensus and injected fresh upside risk into rate expectations. The shift immediately translated into

War Begins, Wall Street Unfazed (for Now!) – Dow Jones and US Stocks Outlook

War Begins, Wall Street Unfazed (for Now!) – Dow Jones and US Stocks Outlook

US Stock Benchmarks gapped lower at the open but have bounced higher significantly since. Investor sentiment remains elevated despite the new beginning of a rough conflict in the Middle East. Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500. Stock Markets have eased significantly during the Asian and European sessions, but it seems

0
Would love your thoughts, please comment.x
()
x