EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today
- Overall Trend: Leaning towards a correction within an ascending channel.
- Today’s Euro/Dollar Support Levels: 1.1220 – 1.1160 – 1.1080.
- Today’s Euro/Dollar Resistance Levels: 1.1300 – 1.1355 -1.1420.
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
- Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1160 with a target of 1.1320 and a stop-loss at 1.1080.
- Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1365 with a target of 1.1150 and a stop-loss at 1.1420.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:
The upward momentum in the EUR/USD pair is gaining strength, with gains reaching the 1.1280 resistance level. The closest point to breaching the 1.1300 resistance level is encouraging bulls to take control and prepare for stronger gains. According to reliable trading platforms, US dollar sellers are making a strong comeback following the US credit rating downgrade. At the beginning of this week’s trading, US assets witnessed strong selling. Stock futures fell by about 1.0%, while US Treasury bonds declined, and the US dollar index reached a 10-day low. Under these conditions, the euro exchange rate against the US dollar (EUR/USD) rose to 1.1280. The bullish outlook for the EUR/USD pair may reach a breakout of the 1.1370 resistance level, the most prominent level on the daily chart.
According to Forex trading, the US dollar recorded sharp losses following Moody’s decision on Friday evening to downgrade the US credit rating to AAA. Overall, this devaluation came at a bad time for the US dollar, given the focus on US fiscal policy and the ongoing debate over growing confidence in the currency. Market experts believe that the main problem for the United States is that bond and currency markets have not adequately considered financial risks in the first place. Accordingly, the current attempts by the US Republican Congress to pass a tax bill will increase pressure on the budget deficit in the medium term.
Trading Tips:
Dear TradersUp follower, keep in mind that the easing of global tensions and increased positive market sentiment will push the EUR/USD towards stronger upward levels. As a result, Bank of America expects the EUR/USD exchange rate to rise to 1.17 by the end of 2025.
Technical Outlook for EUR/USD in the Coming Days:
According to the daily chart, the EUR/USD price is moving within an ascending counter-trend channel to avoid a collapse below the 1.1065 support level, as happened last week. Bulls are strengthening their grip awaiting a breakout of the 1.1300 resistance level and higher, with gains expected for a rebound. Technical indicators are moving away from their midlines to prevent further technical selling. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding above the 50 lines, while the MACD remains far from it, giving bulls the technical momentum to move higher and achieve gains that will strengthen the current ascending channel formation. Conversely, over the same timeframe, the 1.1060 support level remains a real threat for a rebound.
The EUR/USD pair is not expected to release any significant economic releases today, whether from the United States or the Eurozone, and its performance will react to a series of statements from US Federal Reserve officials.
Insights from Currency Experts on the Future of the US Dollar:
According to ING Bank, the US dollar is expected to remain firm this week, as investors await any signals regarding currencies in ongoing trade deals with Asia. A meeting of G7 finance ministers and global central bank governors is also scheduled for Tuesday in Canada. ING added, “It seems highly unlikely, but any changes in their statement’s exchange rate reference – pushed by the US Treasury – would pose a significant risk to the dollar.”
MUFG Bank commented, “Moody’s downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating reminds us of the increasing risk of foreign investors’ reluctance to buy US Treasuries.” The bank added, “Triple sell-offs in US assets have been rare and spaced out in recent years. Our analysis of these selloffs (with 30-year yields rising by at least 15 basis points) points to further US dollar sell-offs in the future.”
Meanwhile, political developments in the European Union will also be a focus of attention with two key votes on Sunday. Bucharest’s centrist mayor, Nicușor Dan, is expected to win the Romanian presidential elections. Commenting on the event, ING Bank noted: “Not because it is usually a major driver of the euro exchange rate, but the result of the Romanian presidential election will be good news in Brussels as it prevents further fragmentation of the bloc.”
In the same vein, the first round of the Polish presidential elections was likely less optimistic. Warsaw’s centrist mayor, Rafał Trzaskowski, received about 31.4%, and far-right historian Karol Nawrocki received about 29.5%. According to ING, “In Poland, the first round of the presidential elections brought the expected candidates to the second round, but the gap between the candidates is much narrower than polls indicated.”
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