Feb. 6, 2026, 4:03 a.m. ET
Do you want the good news or the bad news?
It’s my column, so let’s get the bad news out of the way.
A Harvard CAPS/Harris poll published Feb. 2 had a somewhat surprising finding. When asked whether President Donald Trump was doing a better or worse job than former President Joe Biden, the numbers were not in Trump’s favor.
Of those surveyed, 51% said Biden; 49% said Trump. Now, I remember what a terrible president Biden was, so I have to say this shocked me.
Compare this with one year ago, when voters said the opposite. The same poll from 2025 had Trump at 58%, compared with Biden’s lowly 42%.
A lot can change in a year. And this doesn’t seem to be a good sign for Republicans, as we head closer to the November midterm elections.
Luckily for Trump, he’s got the better part of the year – a full nine months – to turn things around.
And I think he can.
It’s like 2024 all over again. Economy, immigration top issues.
Much like in 2024, ahead of the presidential election, voters now are saying their top two most important issues are the economy and immigration.
The new Harvard poll shows that 33% of voters say inflation is the most important issue, a slight dip from December. And 29% of voters say immigration, up from December.
Here’s why I think that’s good news for Trump.
The pain from years of historic inflation under Biden is still leaving Americans dealing with high prices. The truth, however, is that inflation has cooled under Trump, and that the economy is catching up. Trump just needs to do a better job selling that to the country.
And with immigration, what voters are concerned about has changed. In 2024, they were most distressed by Biden’s open-border policies that had let in record numbers of illegal immigrants.
Trump is now trying to remove those migrants, and the country overall thinks some of those tactics are going too far – especially following the killing of two Americans who were interfering in federal immigration operations in Minneapolis in January.
According to the poll, Trump’s approval rating stands at 45%, down 2 points since December.
Mark Penn, codirector of the Harvard CAPS/Harris poll, in a statement said he attributes this decline to “Americans seeing the economy sagging and inflation raging, even though economic statistics show the opposite.”
He also addressed immigration: “On immigration, the public supports removing criminal aliens but believe that ICE has gone too far and is randomly picking up migrants, a policy they do not support.”
For instance, the poll shows high support (73%) for deporting illegal immigrants who have committed crimes, and it’s one of Trump’s top issues.
Trump seems aware that his administration must make adjustments when it comes to Immigration and Customs Enforcement operations around the country. And this should help ease those concerns among voters.
Voters are slowly starting to feel better about the economy
Now, for more of the good news.
The Harvard poll found that Trump is delivering on his campaign promises, with 55% of voters saying his policies have been consistent with his pledges on the campaign trail. Similarly, 54% say he’s accomplished a lot in his first year, and 15 of 22 key Trump policies still have majority support.
Voters’ opinions on the economy are slowly improving, too. A new survey from pollster Scott Rasmussen of the Napolitan Institute found that 32% say their finances are getting better – 30% say they’re getting worse. The trend over the past month has been moving in the positive direction.
That’s not fantastic news, yet “the current perceptions are among the least pessimistic in nearly 5 years,” the poll finds.
Conservative economist and former Trump adviser Stephen Moore has also been saying the economy is better than what voters feel, and he observed on X recently that “perception and reality are set to converge in the next 6 months.”
If that disconnect is righted, Trump could be in much better standing again on the economy, like in his first term prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.
In 2024, the country chose Trump to handle its top concerns with high inflation and illegal immigration.
Now, he needs to help Republicans win those same voters over again.
Ingrid Jacques is a columnist at USA TODAY. Contact her at ijacques@usatoday.com or on X: @Ingrid_Jacques
