Despite a new proposal from Iran, ceasefire negotiations with US are in flux

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran’s foreign minister continued his shuttle diplomacy, landing in St. Petersburg for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday after a weekend in Pakistan and Oman. Tehran also pitched a new proposal to end the war with the U.S. and Israel.

But the U.S delegation canceled its trip to Pakistan, raising fears a deal to end the war and open the crucial Strait of Hormuz remains elusive.

Here is what to know.

Iran has a new offer

Iran’s latest proposal would put off negotiations on its nuclear program to a future date.

Instead, the deal would only see Tehran end its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for Washington lifting its blockade on Iranian ports and a long-term or permanent truce, according to two regional officials with knowledge of the proposal who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the closed-door negotiations.

That offer will likely be rejected by U.S. President Donald Trump. For one, it doesn’t address the core issue he cited when he began bombing on Feb. 28: finding a way to ensure that Iran cannot build an atomic weapon. It also appears to be silent on other major questions, like Iran’s missile program and its support of proxies in the region.

This weekend, Trump held back sending envoys to Pakistan, which has been playing a crucial mediating role. By saying the Iranians could call Washington with any proposal, Trump appears to be signaling he’s content to try to continue to squeeze Iran via a blockade.

The Strait of Hormuz remains shut

The U.S. blockade both squeezes Iran’s oil sales — a key source of hard currency for its theocracy — and threatens to force Tehran to eventually shut down its production if it can’t get its crude to market. Already, Iran has faced troubles at home over its economy, and it could worsen as time goes on.

The global economy also is suffering: With few ships able to cross the strait, through which about 20% of all traded oil and natural gas passes, oil and gasoline prices are skyrocketing and jet fuel, cooking gas and other energy products are starting to become scarce in parts of the world.

The closure has particularly put pressure on Trump’s Gulf allies, which also use the waterway to export their oil and gas.

A ceasefire without a deadline

The current truce began April 8 after multiple deadlines posed by Trump that threatened Iran’s very “civilization” at one point. A separate ceasefire between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon also has taken effect.

Trump has now extended the ceasefire with Iran indefinitely after whipsawing between various timelines for the conflict.

But negotiations for ending the war have stalled.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance took part in an earlier round of talks days after the truce began — the highest-level ones between America and Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. They ended without agreement.

Pakistan is trying to get the two sides back to the table in Islamabad. But this weekend it took down all the checkpoints and security it had in place in anticipation of negotiations. That signals there’s no immediate hope of talks resuming.

American firepower in the region grows

While negotiations appear at a stalemate, the U.S. military presence in the Middle East continues to grow. As of Monday, the U.S. Navy had three aircraft carrier groups in the region: the USS Abraham Lincoln, the USS Gerald R. Ford and the USS George H.W. Bush.

Those carriers include some 15,000 sailors and Marines, as well as over 200 aircraft and additional ships. An amphibious assault group led by the USS Tripoli is also in the Mideast, with its own sailors, Marines and aircraft.

That comes on top of the warplanes, refuelers and other troop deployments to the region.

Iran seeks help from abroad

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi traveled to Oman, Pakistan and Russia in recent days. Pakistan has been a key mediator in this war, and Oman has long has been a key interlocutor between the U.S. and Iran.

But Russia broadly has stayed out of the latest conflict. Moscow has been floated as a possibility to take in Iran’s highly enriched uranium — removal of which Trump has insisted on. That uranium could be used to build a bomb, should Iran choose to pursue one — though Tehran insists its program is only for civilian purposes.

Russia has signaled it is willing to assist, though Tehran maintains it will not give up its stockpile.

All of Iran’s highly enriched uranium remains in the country, likely entombed at enrichment sites bombed by the U.S. during a 12-day war last June.

Associated Press writer Samy Magdy in Cairo contributed to this report.