Covid cases are at their highest level since February after jumping by nearly a third in a week in England, new analysis shows.
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) case rate dashboard indicates that Covid is now more prevalent than it was in the May wave, after rising by 29 per cent in the week until 22 June.
But while the increase is concerning and expected to continue, scientists pointed out that cases are still barely a quarter of what they were in late December and early January when about 4.5 per cent of the UK population was infected.
The data is based on tests conducted on patients in hospitals and GPs, rather than the population as a whole.
As such, it doesn’t give a precise estimate for the prevalence of the virus across the country but it does give a good indication of trends, scientists said.
“The available data indicates that Covid levels in England have continued to increase this week and are higher than in May,” said Bob Hawkins, a data analyst who works with the Independent Sage group of Covid scientists, who analysed the UKHSA figures.
“Case rates have increased across all regions in the past two weeks, with the North West and North East experiencing the most significant rises.”
As per the data in the analysis sourced from the UKHSA, Covid case rates per 100,000 reached 5.4 per 100,000 in England on 22 June based on hospital and GP tests – with the actual number of people with the virus in the general population being much higher. The last time that figure was equalled was on 13 February.
The rise in case numbers is thought to be due to a combination of waning immunity built up from vaccines and previous infections and the rapid spread of an emerging variant known as KP.3.
What are the symptoms of Covid?
- high temperature, fever or chills
- feeling generally unwell
- continuous cough
- loss of, or change in, your normal sense of taste or smell
- shortness of breath
- unexplained tiredness, lack of energy
- muscle aches or pains that are not due to exercise
- not wanting to eat or not feeling hungry
- headache that’s unusual or longer lasting than usual
- sore throat, stuffy or runny nose
- diarrhoea
- feeling sick or being sick
What are the differences with other illnesses and why you need to test to be absolutely sure
The increase is causing confusion among the public as incidents of Covid were very low in June and July last year.
The symptoms can be hard to tell apart from hay fever, which as well as the common cold, is far more common at this time of the year.
But hay fever is unlikely to cause a cough or a temperature, which can help to tell the two apart if those are your main symptoms, according to BUPA.
Cases of rhinovirus – the most prevalent cause of the common cold – are at similar levels to Covid at the moment.
Although a blocked nose due to hay fever can affect your smell or taste, completely losing your ability to taste or smell is more likely to be caused by Covid.
Cases of flu have similar symptoms but flu levels are currently very low.
E. coli cases have also increased in the UK with the UKHSA saying there were 275 cases as of 25 June. It has been confirmed that one person has died in connection with the outbreak in England.
E. coli symptoms include: diarrhoea, stomach cramps and occasionally fever.
Given the difficulty of identifying Covid from symptoms alone, scientists urge people to take a test to be sure – assuming they can afford to pay for it given that free tests are no longer provided.
Tests typically cost between £1 and £2, depending on how many you buy and where from.
“It’s now difficult to separate Covid symptoms from other respiratory illnesses. This means that testing is the only way to be absolutely sure,” Professor Lawrence Young, of Warwick University, told i.
“The other problem is that Covid symptoms can vary from individual to individual. Some people have the classical symptoms such as a sore throat, cough, runny nose and fever while others have diarrhoea and nausea with few respiratory symptoms. A combination of prior infection, vaccinations and changing virus variants is responsible for people experiencing different responses to infection,” he said.
The rise in Covid cases has intensified calls for people who are eligible for a free spring booster to take up the offer before it closes on Sunday after figures showed only 55 per cent of them had had the jab.
And scientists urged those who can afford to buy a jab privately, to do so.
If the test is positive, or a person is suffering heavily from symptoms even without a test, scientists advise them to stay away from work if possible to avoid passing the virus on – and to keep testing, so that they don’t go back to work while they’re still positive.
Official guidance, which dates back to when tests were freely available, recommends adults “try to stay at home and avoid contact with other people for 5 days after the day you took your test” and children to avoid contact for three days.
This guidance stops short of recommending people stop working altogether when they have the virus.
Scientists say it is a good idea to stop working, at least for a few days, to recover properly from the virus – although it is understood that many people won’t be able to afford to do this.
