Could Trump’s tariffs trigger a recession in the US? What experts predicting

Mar 13, 2025 08:10 AM IST

Donald Trump’s tariffs have sparked US recession worries, with Goldman Sachs raising the odds to 20% and J.P. Morgan estimating 40%. 

Tariffs placed by Donald Trump on China, Mexico and Canada have become the cause for concern about whether a recession is coming to the country. Now, many Americans are wondering just how likely a recession is—and what it would mean if the economy were to take a downturn.

(Image for rep) Concerns about a U.S. recession grow due to Trump’s tariffs. Goldman Sachs raised recession odds to 20%, and J.P. Morgan estimates it at 40%. (AFP)(AFP)

GDP growth that has two consecutive quarters of negative real growth is often defined as a recession. GDP means the total of the value of goods and services made within a country over a given period.

However, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) says a recession is a “significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.”

ALSO READ| Donald Trump stumbles over script during St. Patrick’s Day event, netizens call to ‘resign’

What experts are predicting for the US economy

Goldman Sachs recently increased its odds of a US recession in the next year from 15% to 20%, per The Wall Street Journal. The firm warned that the likelihood could rise if the Trump administration remains “committed to its policies even in the face of much worse data.”

Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan Chase economists estimate the chances of a recession at 40%, citing “extreme U.S. policies,” according to Bloomberg.

John Hancock Investment Management noted six key things that can happen during a downturn: rising unemployment, increased savings, decline in manufacturing and service decline, falling prices, lower interest rates, and higher government spending.

Is a US recession looming?

“I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing,” Trump said during an interview with Fox News.

ALSO READ| Will TikTok get banned on April 5? Trump admin working with ‘4 different groups’ interested in buying the platform

“It takes a little time. It takes a little time. But I think it should be great for us.”

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent echoed this sentiment in a CNBC interview, referring to an economic “detox period” as the country shifts from public to private spending.

rec-icon Recommended Topics

Source link

Visited 1 times, 1 visit(s) today

Related Article

國泰遭摩通、匯豐下調評級及目標價 見3年最大跌幅 (15:21) – 20250313 – 即時財經新聞

摩通指,國泰2024年度業績強勁,管理層認為前景既有挑戰,亦有機會。國泰股價由去年11月起累升35%,跑贏同業及恒指,已接近該行早前的目標價(12.3元)。認為股價偏高,已相當於1.2倍市帳率,應對風險回報作出平衡,因而將目標價及評級下調,但認為6厘的股息率在全球同業中較高,相信可為股價提供支持。 摩通指,雖然乘客收益率降、可用座位千米數增,但乘客運載率維持健康的83.2%,國泰預期區域客運率將趨於穩定,而長途航線將持續調整。貨運方面,電商佔國泰貨運近半,仍將是增長動力,而香港是中美航空貨運的重要樞紐。因貨運佔國泰收入26%,美國擬取消「小額豁免」(de minimis)將對國泰收益產生低單位數影響,直接的財務影響有限。但鑑於當前的貿易動態和監管變化,國泰航空作為主要航空貨運中轉樞紐的地位可能會受到更負面影響。 摩通指,國泰2024年接收12隻新飛機,但2025年則只有4隻 A321neo,但同時有4隻退役,首隻波音 777-9更要2026年才接收,相信在供應受限下,國泰的收益率仍會有支持。 匯豐指,國泰第二季表現好過預期,主要受惠於高收入、低燃料成本及稅款。乘客收益率下降,逐步回復正常水平。對於貨運,國泰航空稱監管變化不確定,但到目前為止,第一季尚未看到任何結構性影響。 匯豐認為,對中國「小額豁免」包裹的更嚴格規和美國對中國進口產品徵收的額外關稅,可能會對國泰航空今年剩餘時間的貨運量增長造成壓力,儘管可能會因關稅、禁令前看到貨運量短期內出現上升。此外,香港機場第三條跑道投入使用,可能會吸引其他航空公司增加在該機場的航班時刻,對國泰航空構成競爭威脅。 匯豐指,由於客運量和貨運量下降,將2025-26年息稅前利潤預測(EBIT)下調2至4%,但收益率下降速度放緩的假設部分抵消這一影響。由於淨利息較高,將2025至26年的經常性利潤大幅下調5至11%。預計2025至26年息稅前利潤(EBIT)將持續下降,部分原因是聯營公司貢獻的增加。該行的2025至26年經常性利潤比普遍預期低7至12%。 國泰(0293)曾跌最多6.79%,是2022年3月7日後最大跌幅,當日跌幅為8.57%。低見10.16元,是2月28日10.1元後最低。現報10.34元,跌5.14%。連跌3日,累計跌0.82元,對上一次連跌3日是2024年12月18日。連續第2日陰燭,對上一次連續第2日陰燭是2月20日。成交金額增23.37%,至5.19億元,是2024年11月15日後最多,當日達9.86億元。 其他報道 滬深三大指數連跌兩個交易日 滬指跌0.39% 太古A、B一度跌逾7% 去年少賺85% 不派特別息 百威亞太據報裁員數千 擬削成本約15% 半日沽空金額減5% 南方恒生科技增4% 與盈富街貨齊減 太古去年少賺85% 太古A派息2.1元 太古B派息42仙 不派特別息 九倉全年轉蝕32億元 派息0.2元 基礎盈利28億遜預期 新鴻基公司發盈喜 料轉虧為盈 賺最多4億 太古地產盈轉虧蝕7.7億元 第二次中期息76仙 恒指半日跌173點 科指跌2.1%見一周低 失守10天、20天線 美國監管機構據報推進對微軟反壟斷調查 傳內地監管機構促四大行維持對新世界現有信貸額度 新世界曾升3.7% 港元拆息全線向下 總結餘上升 Shibor普遍向下 據報港交所正討論降每手股數 降入場門檻 瑞銀重新預期美元2025年偏軟 Source link

Nasdaq Correction: 3 Safe High-Yield Dividend Stocks to Buy Now

The Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) started this week tumbling 4% on Monday — the index’s worst day since September 2022 — and is still 12.5% off its all-time highs after today’s trading session. When the major indexes are making new all-time highs, it’s easy to overlook the benefits of dividend stocks. But when the market

Inflation: don’t cheer yet

This article is an on-site version of our Unhedged newsletter. Premium subscribers can sign up here to get the newsletter delivered every weekday. Standard subscribers can upgrade to Premium here, or explore all FT newsletters Good morning. The market did not crash on fears of stagflation yesterday, after a colder than anticipated consumer price index

Asian stocks wobble as US inflation fails to ease trade worries

Ongoing worries over Donald Trump’s trade war overshadowed a below-forecast US inflation reading (STR) Asian investors struggled Thursday to build on much-needed gains on Wall Street as a below-forecast read on US inflation was offset by ongoing concerns about President Donald Trump’s trade war. With governments around the world trying to figure out how to

Nasdaq Stock Market Correction: Is Nvidia a Screaming Buy Right Now?

In just a matter of weeks, tech stocks have gone from stretching to all-time highs to plunging on concerns around tariffs and even a recession. As of March 11, the Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) has fallen 13.6% from its closing peak on Dec. 17, 2024. The tech-heavy index was hovering around all-time highs as recently

Tesla isn’t the Elon Musk company you should worry about. It’s Starlink.

The next phase of Elon Musk’s plan to entangle his companies with the workings of the federal government is well underway. That entails not only President Donald Trump’s photo op with a Tesla in front of the White House but also, surprisingly, the future of your internet connection. More specifically, Musk is making moves that

New data shows egg prices up 10.4%. Here’s what else is costing you more

We spoke with Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rawlings, who says it may take until the summer to see the effects of the Trump administration’s new plan to bring down egg prices. Rawlins says the USDA has *** 5 point plan bringing more hens into repopulating flocks, removing red tape to help the industry grow, considering temporary

Why Nvidia, Intel, Broadcom, and Other Semiconductor Stocks Rallied Wednesday Morning

Incremental improvements in the state of the economy and a potential groundbreaking collaboration in the chip industry helped spark a broad-based market rally. Investors and consumers have all grown weary of persistent inflation, and the state of the economy has been top of mind on Wall Street and Main Street alike. There was finally some

Is the inflation drop good news for mortgage rates?

The latest inflation data could have an impact on where mortgage rates are headed next.  Getty Images Wednesday’s inflation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that inflation decreased in February to 2.8% from 3.0% the month prior. This shift in inflation broke a four-month streak of inflation increases, offering some hope that

US stocks swing wildly as traders ponder tariff risks, CPI data

Turbulence was again on display in the US stock market on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 Index swinging wildly between gains and losses as investors assessed a deepening trade war and a cooler-than-expected inflation report. Stocks have struggled to stabilize after a three-week selloff that has wiped out almost 10% from the S&P 500 as

Recession fears are rising—what to expect if one happens

As President Donald Trump escalated trade tensions with new tariffs and retaliatory threats, the stock market tumbled this week, fueling recession fears. On Sunday, Trump addressed concerns about an economic slowdown on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures,” describing the recent turmoil as “a period of transition” and saying, “It takes a little time, but I

Nasdaq Stock Market Correction: Is Nvidia Stock a Buy at 27% Off Its High?

The artificial intelligence (AI) chip giant’s stock is trading at an attractive valuation. Nvidia (NVDA 6.78%) stock has been a fantastic medium- and long-term winner and even a winner over the last year. But shares of the artificial intelligence (AI) chip and technology leader have been having a tough time recently. Nvidia stock closed at

Hedge funds slash bets as Trump’s trade war causes ‘a lot of pain’

Unlock the White House Watch newsletter for free Your guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world Hedge funds have slashed their bets on equities and cut their borrowings from banks as they struggle to deal with surging market volatility triggered by US President Donald Trump’s global trade war. A sharp

Here’s the inflation breakdown for February 2025 — in one chart

Eggs for sale at a grocery store in Los Angeles on Feb. 26, 2025. Eric Thayer/Bloomberg via Getty Images Inflation receded in February on the back of easing price pressures for consumer staples like gasoline, groceries and housing, amid worries that President Donald Trump’s tariff policies could stall progress. The consumer price index rose 2.8%

Trump’s Unexpected Blow to Wall Street

Good morning. At a White House event yesterday, Trump’s handwritten notes were once again caught on camera. This time, they read like a Tesla sales pitch. In today’s big story, Wall Street assumed that the stock market would act as a check on Donald Trump’s new administration. That isn’t panning out. What’s on deck Markets:

CPI inflation report February 2025:

Prices for goods and services moved up less than expected in February, providing some relief as consumers and businesses worry about the looming impact tariffs might have on inflation, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. The consumer price index, a wide-ranging measure of costs across the U.S. economy, ticked up a seasonally adjusted 0.2%

It’ll be tough for Trump to dig his way out of this one

CNN  —  With his chaotic trade policy, President Donald Trump is digging himself into an economic and political hole so deep, it may prove impossible to climb out. On Wednesday morning, just after markets spent a day reeling from Trump’s on-again-off-again threat to levy extraordinary energy, steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada and to destroy

0
Would love your thoughts, please comment.x
()
x