Quick overview
- Price action indicates a potential silver rally reminiscent of the 1979-1980 event due to a significant gap between paper contracts and physical inventory.
- Analysts suggest that silver prices could rise to $200 per ounce if the COMEX fails to meet physical delivery demands, with a current open interest of 429 million ounces against only 103 to 120 million ounces available for delivery.
- Concerns about a ‘Run’ on the Bank highlight that if 25% of contract holders demand physical delivery, the exchange could run out of silver, as evidenced by a recent order of 40 million ounces in January 2026.
- While some analysts predict a silver default could impact the broader financial system, others argue that exchange rules may prevent a true collapse.
Fundamental action suggests that a larger Silver rally, similar to the 1979–1980 event, might be coming. A significant gap between paper contracts and physical inventory has worsened the COMEX default, especially in the silver market.
The “default” scenario is based on a large difference between the amount of metal promised in future contracts and the actual metal in exchange vaults. Some analysts say silver prices could “reset,” possibly rising toward or above $200 per ounce, if the exchange cannot meet physical delivery demands.
COMEX is said to have between 103 and 120 million ounces of “registered” silver (metal ready for delivery) in stock. Open interest stands at about 429 million ounces of contracts.
The “Run” on the Bank indicates that the exchange could run out of silver if even 25% of contract holders demanded physical delivery instead of cash. Recent activity shows that in January 2026 alone, an unusual 40 million ounces were ordered for delivery.
The Bull Case (Robert Kiyosaki and Clive Thompson): Kiyosaki expected silver to hit $200 in 2026, citing a weakening fiat system and industrial demand from solar and AI. Clive Thompson warns that by March 2026, COMEX might run out of deliverable silver. Since gold is the ultimate “anti-dollar” hedge, a silver default could also impact gold, influence credit markets, and the broader financial system, as suggested by Bill Holter’s Systemic Risk Case.
The Skeptical Case (CPM Group): Traditional analysts often say that exchange rules prevent a full collapse by allowing Force Majeure or cash-only settlements, making a true “default” impossible.
Olumide Adesina
Financial Market Writer
Olumide Adesina is a French-born Nigerian financial writer. He tracks the financial markets with over 15 years of working experience in investment trading.
