China’s 15th Five-Year Plan marks a significant shift in China’s ODI strategy, emphasising security, risk management, and the overseas expansion of high-tech sectors, particularly AI and digital technologies. The plan also reaffirms the Belt and Road Initiative and positions Hong Kong as a comprehensive services hub for Chinese companies going global.

The Chinese government is increasingly emphasizing security and risk management of overseas investments, while encouraging Chinese technology companies to expand overseas.  

China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP), the country’s key development blueprint for the 2026 to 2030 period, points to a more cautious approach that stresses risk control, regulatory oversight, and the protection of overseas assets and interests. 

While the country will seek to retain its place in global supply chains, the 15th FYP also explicitly encourages Chinese companies in emerging sectors, in particular artificial intelligence and digital technologies, to expand overseas, highlighting the role that ODI will play in shoring up domestic industries and technological capabilities against the background of tech self-sufficiency. 

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China’s flagship overseas development strategy, remains a centerpiece of China’s ODI strategy, with the new plan highlighting “high-quality” cooperation, closer alignment with partner countries, and expansion into new areas such as green development and the digital economy. 

Meanwhile, Hong Kong, as the top destination for China’s ODI, remains the key bridge and will see its role expand further from a capital hub to a comprehensive service platform providing legal, financial, and risk management support for Chinese companies going global.

Encouraging ODI in high-tech and emerging sectors 

In a departure from previous five-year plans, the 15th FYP explicitly encourages Chinese companies in emerging tech fields to “expand overseas application scenarios”, with internet platforms and artificial intelligence directly mentioned.  

Both the 14th and 13th FYP focused largely on the overseas expansion of manufacturing and embedding Chinese companies into global supply chains, with the 13th FYP concentrating on heavy industries in particular. 

While the 15th FYP maintains the importance of overseas manufacturing and industrial chains, calling for “guiding the rational and orderly cross-border layout of industrial and supply chains”, this shift in focus to high-tech is particularly notable as it aligns with the plan’s broader vision of technological self-sufficiency and the development of emerging industries. Infusing this priority into ODI goals indicates that the government views overseas expansion as another tool for advancing emerging technologies, and highlights a belief that establishing a presence abroad in these key sectors can help reinforce domestic growth and innovation. It also underscores that the government increasingly sees future growth potential as stemming from the technology sector rather than primarily from heavy industries, which have historically been the main pull for Chinese investors. 

This shift has already been underway over the course of the 14th FYP period. In 2024, China’s ODI flows into information transmission, software, and IT services sectors increased by 205.5 percent from the previous year to reach US$6.97 billion, according to data from the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM). While this accounted for a relatively small proportion of the annual ODI flow – only 3.6 percent – it represented 12.7 percent of total ODI stock at the end of 2024, making it the second-largest share after leasing and business services. 

Shoring up protection of overseas investments 

The 15th FYP places considerable emphasis on the security and protection of overseas investments, calling for improved risk management but also better IP protection mechanisms and more comprehensive legal, arbitration, and dispute resolution frameworks. 

While this focus on strengthening the protection of overseas investment is not new – the 14th FYP contains similar language encouraging companies to “strengthen compliance management and prevent and resolve various risks from overseas political, economic, and security situations” – the 15th FYP uses considerably stronger language and dedicates more space to outlining the specific institutions, mechanisms, and policy tools required to safeguard overseas assets and interests.

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The plan calls for supporting professional services firms, such as those specializing in consulting, legal services, accounting and auditing, credit rating, and mediation and arbitration, to “expand their overseas service networks”, and for improving the system for protecting foreign-related intellectual property rights. 

For instance, the 15th FYP calls for strengthening the protection of the legitimate interests of both Chinese individuals and companies, and requires the establishment of “a system for responding to demands and providing protection and relief, and improving the system for protecting overseas interests”. 

This heightened focus on investment protections stems from an increasingly volatile and uncertain investment environment for Chinese companies and individuals going abroad, as an increasing number of investments are made in developing countries with weaker legal systems and pathways for arbitration and more volatile political environments, as well as increased scrutiny in more developed countries. 

For this reason, the 15th FYP also places considerable emphasis on risk management, calling for “strengthening the security review of overseas investment” and “improving the mechanisms and laws and regulations for monitoring, preventing, and handling overseas investment risks, and promoting enterprises to enhance their risk prevention and compliance capabilities”. 

The Belt and Road Initiative

While discussion of the BRI has receded from policy debates and public discourse in the west, the initiative remains central to China’s overseas investment strategy. Chinese investment in BRI countries has also continued to rise, with total non-financial ODI flows increasing by 17.6 percent year-on-year to almost US$40 billion in 2025, accounting for 27 percent of the total.

The 15th FYP maintains the core elements of the BRI, including a continued emphasis on infrastructure development – particularly transport – but places greater weight on “high-quality” cooperation and “strengthening alignment with the strategies of participating countries”.

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The plan stipulates that the “high-quality” cooperation will involve improving policy communication and strategic alignment with partner countries and international organizations, and building cooperation platforms in areas such as energy, taxation, poverty reduction, think tanks, and the media. In practice, this means better aligning projects with host country priorities, securing stronger local buy-in, and expanding institutional coordination through mechanisms such as double taxation agreements. The plan also promotes the “overseas application of Chinese standards”, signalling increased efforts to internationalize Chinese technical, regulatory, and industrial standards. 

In terms of infrastructure, the plan calls for “facilitating multi-channel transportation via land, sea, and air”, including participation in major connectivity projects such as China–Europe freight trains, the Trans-Caspian International Transport Corridor, the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan Railway, the Hungary–Serbia Railway, and the New International Land–Sea Corridor. 

The plan also calls for expanding cooperation in emerging areas such as technology and green development, specifically highlighting artificial intelligence and the digital economy, underscoring the growing role of these sectors within BRI cooperation. 

Finally, it calls for “improving a diversified, sustainable, and risk-controllable investment and financing system” and “strengthening the protection of overseas interests”, reinforcing the broader shift towards enhanced risk management and investment protection in China’s outbound strategy. 

Hong Kong as a springboard for Chinese companies going global 

The 15th FYP calls for improving the mechanisms through which Hong Kong and Macao can better contribute to the country’s opening up, supporting their deep participation in the high-quality development of the Belt and Road Initiative, and leveraging their professional service advantages to assist mainland enterprises in “going global”. It also highlights their role as key platforms for exchanges and mutual learning between Chinese and Western systems. 

Hong Kong’s central position in China’s outbound investment strategy is underscored by its continued dominance in China’s ODI flows, accounting for 60 percent in 2024. This high share reflects its role as the primary offshore hub through which mainland firms expand overseas.

Beyond a hub for capital flows, the 15th FYP seeks to position Hong Kong as a springboard that facilitates and supports ODI, calling for “leveraging professional service advantages” and underscoring its role as a provider of legal, financial, and advisory services that enable Chinese firms to operate more effectively in complex international environments.

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More specifically, the plan reinforces Hong Kong’s role in risk and asset management, supporting its development as an international asset and wealth management centre and as a hub for international risk management. These functions are particularly important as Chinese firms face increasing exposure to legal, political, and financial risks abroad. 

Similarly, the 15th FYP places importance on strengthening Hong Kong’s role as an international legal and dispute resolution center, aligning with the plan’s broader emphasis on improving the protection of overseas interests. 

The plan also highlights Hong Kong’s role in supporting the internationalization of the RMB, reinforcing its position as a global offshore RMB business hub. This provides critical currency infrastructure for mainland enterprises engaging in outbound investment, particularly as the use of RMB in cross-border transactions continues to expand. 

The global implications of China’s ODI strategy 

The emphasis on investment security and risk management in the 15th FYP suggests overseas investment projects will receive more state oversight and stricter compliance requirements, leading to more selective capital allocation, greater scrutiny of high-risk markets, and a shift towards projects that are politically, financially, and strategically sustainable. 

An important part of improving protections for Chinese investors overseas will be the institutionalization of Chinese ODI, and thus the increase in provision of Chinese legal services, arbitration mechanisms, and professional service networks, as well as the expansion of bilateral agreements, including investment treaties and double taxation arrangements, to provide more predictable legal and regulatory environments.

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The focus on technology sectors in ODI will become one of the more interesting trends to watch over the next five years, as Chinese tech companies compete to make technological breakthroughs and capture these emerging markets. As the race for developing a range of cutting-edge technologies intensifies, in particular in areas such as artificial intelligence, Chinese companies will increasingly seek to make their mark on the global stage. 

At the same time, there is a recognition within China that sluggish domestic demand could hamper the development of certain emerging sectors, in particular those for which scaling is required for effective commercialization. New markets overseas could provide the necessary demand and stimulus to maintain development momentum. 

The BRI will continue to serve as a key platform for advancing these objectives, evolving towards “high-quality” cooperation that prioritizes financially viable projects, closer alignment with partner countries, and expanded engagement in technology and green development, thereby reinforcing China’s long-term economic and strategic influence across participating regions. 

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