China’s influence on the US-Iran ceasefire deal

An “11th-hour” call from Iran’s biggest trading partner, China, is believed to have led to successful ceasefire negotiations between Iran, the United States and Israel.

US President Donald Trump said China was responsible for bringing Iran to the negotiating table as his ceasefire deadline loomed, with the White House also confirming it held “top-level” talks with China.

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi said he had held 26 phone calls with his counterparts in Iran, Israel, Russia and Gulf countries throughout the war.

Pakistan will host Saturday’s negotiations between the United States and Iran in Islamabad, after working with China on a five-point plan.

The plan calls for an immediate ceasefire, the start of peace talks, protection of civilians and infrastructure, secure shipping routes including the Strait of Hormuz, and a UN-backed framework for long-term peace.

Pakistan has traditionally been a US ally while maintaining strong ties with Iran and China.

Natasha Lindstaedt, a professor of government at the University of Essex, said Pakistan had likely reached out to Beijing to help.

“I think there was pressure coming from China at the 11th hour,” Professor Lindstaedt told the ABC’s The World program.

“Pressure coming from one of [Iran’s] biggest trading partners was definitely going to make an impact.“

China is one of Iran’s most significant partners, both economically and politically.

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Chinese buyers account for more than 80 per cent of Iran’s oil exports each year, which makes up about 13 per cent of China’s total oil imports.

Professor Lindstaedt said China’s interest in the Middle East grew after its tariff war with the United States.

She said Beijing would be worse off economically if the conflict in the Middle East continued.

“Therefore [China] have a lot of interest in maintaining some kind of global stability because it’s so important for their exports, for their economy,” she said.

“So for Xi Jinping, it was vital that this conflict comes to some sort of pause.

“There was probably increasing pressure on Iran to do so.”

China’s ‘top priority’ to see permanent ceasefire 

China has welcomed news of the ceasefire and was quick to take some credit for its role in negotiations. 

Mr Trump is due to travel to Beijing in May for a much-anticipated meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, which was delayed as the war intensified.

Under the temporary ceasefire, the United States is expected to suspend attacks on Iran for two weeks, while Iran temporarily reopens the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran has also proposed a 10-point plan for securing a long-term end to the war, which Mr Trump said was “workable”. 

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said Foreign Minister Wang Yi held 26 phone calls with counterparts in Iran, Israel, Russia and the Gulf countries while Beijing’s Middle East envoy “shuttled across” the war-torn region. 

“Since the conflict began, China has held an objective, just and balanced position and has been working to help bring about a ceasefire and end to the conflict,” she told reporters at a press conference.

“The top priority is to bring an immediate end to the military operations and return to dialogue and negotiation, so as to fundamentally resolve the issues and restore peace and stability in the Gulf region.

“All parties need to demonstrate sincerity and quickly end this war that should not have happened in the first place.”

She told reporters during a press conference that China would “continue to make efforts to ease the situation and achieve a complete end to the war”.

Ceasefire likely to be ‘fragile’

China and Pakistan have also jointly put forward a five-point initiative on restoring peace and stability across the Middle East. 

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said Islamabad would host delegations from the United States and Iran for further ceasefire talks this week.

Two men shake hands in front of the Pakistan and China flags.

Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammad Ishaq Dar met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing in March. (Cai Yang/Xinhua via AP)

But Professor Lindstaedt warned ceasefires were “always super fragile” and were often broken because they were based on “trust and communication”.

She said the ceasefire brokered between Iran and Israel last year still saw attacks between the countries, like has been occurring during this latest ceasefire.

“So it is likely, it is possible, that this could happen,” she told the ABC.

“It wasn’t as if you snap your fingers and suddenly everybody is agreeing to things.”

After the ceasefire was announced, Iran had reportedly attacked Kuwait and Qatar, while Israel attacked Lebanon.

“But I do see both sides as quite fatigued,” she said.

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