China increased imports of sanctioned Russian oil transported by vessels linked to Russia’s shadow fleet in January 2026, while India significantly reduced its purchases.
According to the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine on February 16, tankers associated with Russia’s shadow fleet exported 14.32 million tons of crude oil in January, equivalent to more than 104 million barrels. This represents a decrease of 1.417 million tons compared to December 2025.
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The intelligence data indicates that China was the largest recipient of Russian oil delivered by shadow fleet tankers during the month. A total of 51 voyages transported 4.99 million tons of crude to China—an increase of 0.398 million tons compared to December.
At the same time, India reduced its intake. Shadow fleet vessels completed 29 voyages to India, delivering 3.222 million tons of oil—2.271 million tons less than the previous month.
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According to the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, additional shipments were directed to Turkey, Syria, and Georgia. Eight voyages delivered 0.904 million tons to Turkey, while four voyages transported 0.391 million tons to Syria and Georgia combined. Another 45 voyages delivered 4.813 million tons of Russian crude to unspecified destinations.
The agency reported that the largest share of shadow fleet exports originated from Russian ports in the Baltic Sea and the Far East. It also recorded 18 ship-to-ship transfer operations in January, primarily in waters near Nakhodka in the Sea of Japan, in the South China Sea near Hong Kong, and off the coast of Malaysia, followed by deliveries to China.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, the number of active shadow fleet tankers declined by nine vessels at the beginning of the year. As of January 2026, analysts identified 138 tankers used for exporting Russian oil and petroleum products.
Of these, 117 vessels were classified as part of the core shadow fleet, and 96 have already been placed under sanctions. The agency also noted the appearance of four previously untracked vessels operating within the network.
Earlier, Russian media reported that a wave of bankruptcies is spreading across Russia’s oil sector as crude prices fall to around $40 per barrel and tighter US sanctions cut export revenues. About half of oil and gas producers are now operating at a loss, with combined losses reaching $7.4 billion between January and November.
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