An Atlético Madrid vs Arsenal semifinal might not carry the explosiveness of the other match involving PSG and Bayern Munich, but that doesn’t take anything away from it. Both teams share the agonizing distinction of having reached the final of Europe’s premier competition without ever lifting the famous trophy. After this tie, one of them will get another shot at glory.

The Myth of Being Defensive: Atlético Madrid vs Arsenal Preview

If I had told you ten years ago that Diego Simeone would lead a team into a Champions League semifinal boasting the most prolific attack in the tournament, you would have laughed. For years, Atleti gained a notorious reputation for being the ultimate “haramball” team, or more formally, an anti-soccer team. They were built on suffering, low blocks, and grinding out 1-0 victories.

Not anymore. This season, and for a few seasons now, Los Rojiblancos have completely reimagined their identity on the continent. They have smashed their own club record for goals in a single European campaign, racking up an astonishing 34 goals leading up to this semifinal, eclipsing their previous best of 26 from the 2013-14 run.

Have Arsenal Inherited the Anti-Soccer Philosophy?

Mikel Arteta has built a squad that currently sits top of the Premier League and looks terrifying in Europe. Arsenal arrives in the Spanish capital boasting an unbeaten Champions League record this season: 10 wins, 2 draws, and 0 defeats. But it is the nature of those results that should strike fear into the hearts of the Metropolitano faithful. The Gunners have conceded just 5 goals in 12 matches, keeping 8 clean sheets in the process.

Critics have called out Mikel Arteta for deploying a very defensive, set-piece-oriented approach to his neo-Arsenal philosophy, something akin to Atlético Madrid of previous years. Arsenal are proficient this season in keeping clean sheets, but that is because they do not attack much after scoring first. They have also scored an exceptionally high number of goals from set pieces, 17 in the Premier League, and will look to do that against Atleti as well.

The Road to the Atlético Madrid vs Arsenal Semifinal

Atleti’s domestic form has been a bit patchy. They only just ended a four-game La Liga losing streak with a gritty 3-2 win over Athletic Bilbao. But in Europe, they are playing with chaotic freedom. They have completely disregarded La Liga over the last few weeks to focus and keep their players fresh for the semifinal, choosing to field rotation and academy players, which is why they suffered those losses. Since their last win against Barcelona in the first leg of the quarterfinals, Atleti have only won one game, scoring 9 and conceding 12. In the midst of that run, they also lost the Copa del Rey final to Real Sociedad, a result that would certainly dent their momentum. But despite this shaky run, they have scored in 12 consecutive games in all competitions, with their last scoreless game coming nearly two months ago.

Their path to the final four has been thrilling as well. In the Round of 16, they put eight goals past Arsenal’s bitter rivals Tottenham Hotspur in a chaotic 8-5 aggregate thriller. In the quarterfinals, they went to the Spotify Camp Nou and stunned Barcelona 2-0, eventually surviving the second leg to advance 3-2 on aggregate. They are now in their first semifinal in the Champions League since 2016/17, when they lost 4-2 on aggregate to Real Madrid. Outside of that loss Atleti have won six of their last seven European semifinals, most recently against Arsenal in the 2017/18 Europa League. Atleti have also won all three European semifinals against Premier League opponents.

The Ghosts of the Past

Arsenal holds the most recent bragging rights, having completely dismantled Atlético 4-0 at the Emirates during the League Phase back in October. It was a humiliating night for Simeone’s men, who almost seemed on the verge of tears after Atleti’s poor overall start to the season. Arteta will undoubtedly remind his players of that game.

The last time these two sides met in a European semifinal was the 2018 Europa League. Arsenal battered an Atleti side down to 10 men in the first leg at the Emirates but only managed a 1-1 draw, before returning to Madrid where a vintage Diego Costa goal secured a 1-0 win for the Spaniards. Simeone’s side knows how to suffer through two-legged ties, having prevailed in 11 of their last 15 European knockout ties against English opposition.

In overall head-to-head meetings, the teams have met three times in official competition. Arsenal and Atleti both have one win each, and a draw between them, which came in the first leg of the 2017/18 Europa League semifinal.

Historically, Champions League semifinal first legs are cagey, low-scoring affairs as both teams fear making the fatal mistake. But given Atleti’s defensive vulnerabilities (they have conceded 26 goals in their 14 European games this season), and their obligation to attack at home, there will be spaces for Arsenal to exploit.

Atlético Madrid vs Arsenal: Team News and Predictions

Pablo Barrios and José María Giménez for Atleti remain sidelined. But their biggest loss could be Ademola Lookman if he doesn’t recover from the adductor muscle strain he sustained against Sociedad. The Nigerian winter signing has been crucial for Diego Simeone, completely revitalizing Atleti and showing up in crucial moments in big games since his arrival. Both he and David Hancko are doubts but might feature briefly pending medical clearance.

As for my prediction, I think a 3-2 win for Atleti is on the cards. Every time Atlético Madrid have played the first leg at home in a key knockout game this season, they have excelled. There’s something in the air at the Estadio Metropolitano, and Simeone and his men would love to feel that high again.

Neither side has ever won this trophy. By the end of the second leg, one of them will be 90 minutes away from another crack at it.