Champions League: Is facing a play-off really that bad?

So if you finish outside the top eight and have to face another two matches, does that wreck your chances of Champions League glory?

As PSG spectacularly proved last season, it certainly does not.

In 2024-25, Luis Enrique’s side were facing Champions League elimination when 2-0 down at home to Manchester City on matchday seven of the league phase.

But PSG won 4-2 and then defeated Stuttgart 4-1 in another must-win tie to finish 15th in the league. They then crushed fellow Ligue 1 side Brest 10-0 on aggregate in the knockout play-offs, defeated Liverpool on penalties in the last 16, got past Aston Villa and Arsenal in the quarter-finals and semi-finals respectively before thrashing Inter 5-0 in the final.

PSG face Monaco in this season’s play-offs with Luis Enrique unconcerned by the extra matches, saying his side can win back-to-back Champions League trophies.

“If any team is ready for the play-offs, it is us,” he said.

“We knew it was a possibility that we might have to go into the play-offs. We will have to take the long route, but I don’t think anyone else can be considered favourites more than us.”

The other European club competitions also adopted similar formats last season, with Real Betis reaching the Conference League final, losing 4-1 to Chelsea, despite coming 15th in the league phase.

However, it was not the same in the Europa League.

Seven of the top eight reached the quarter-finals with fourth-placed Tottenham beating third-placed Manchester United in the final.

Despite having two extra matches, football data specialists Opta rate PSG’s chances of winning the Champions League higher than top-eight finishers Tottenham and Sporting.

Newcastle and Inter Milan are rated as having a 3% chance of lifting the trophy, the same as Spurs.

Following a perfect league phase, table-toppers Arsenal are judged to have a 30% chance of becoming European champions for the first time.

However, they will be wary of what happened to Liverpool last season after Arne Slot’s side finished top of the league, only to then run into PSG at the last-16 phase and be eliminated.

Bayern Munich, who cannot meet Arsenal until the final, are given a 14% chance, followed by both Manchester City and Liverpool on 10%, then Chelsea and Barcelona on 7%.

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