Ahead of what is bound to be a hugely damaging set of results for Keir Starmer and the government, a politics expert says multiple councils in Labour’s Merseyside heartlands will be vulnerable
04:00, 05 May 2026
St Helens, where Labour could lose power
A political guru believes this week’s local elections will be “catastrophic” for the Labour Party and could lead to the extraordinary prospect of the party losing control of two councils in its Merseyside heartland.
Voters across the country will go to the polls on Thursday for a set of local elections that could see Labour lose as many as 75% of the council seats it holds, according to pollsters. This would represent one of the worst set of results for any party in living memory.
These results would pile enormous pressure on beleaguered Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, who is already clinging on to his authority after the Peter Mandelson scandal and continually poor personal approval ratings.
Here on Merseyside, where Labour have dominated councils for decades, the unpopularity of the national Labour government could produce some seismic and historic results, according to Jonathan Tonge, a politics professor at the University of Liverpool.
When it comes to our region, Thursday’s local elections will see all out votes in both St Helens and Sefton, where every single council seat will be up for grabs. In Knowsley, a third of the council’s seats will be contested.
Professor Tonge believes Labour will almost certainly lose control of St Helens Council after running the local authority since 2010.
He told the ECHO: “I think St Helens is massively vulnerable and I would be very surprised if Labour held on to St Helens. There are 28 out of 48 seats currently held by Labour, you’ve already got a green presence, a Reform presence, Liberal Democrats, Conservatives and independents – so there is a combination of forces.
“Every shade of political opinion is already on that council and it is about who will do best out of them. Labour doesn’t need to lose many seats to lose control there. I think it is pretty certain that they will.”
He added: “I don’t think another party will capture it outright, but Labour could certainly could lose overall control.”
The politics expert also thinks there is a chance that Labour could lose control of Sefton Council, where the party currently dominates with 51 out of 66 seats, although he admits this would be a remarkable result.
He said: “I accept that if Labour were to lose Sefton it would be pretty extraordinary. They currently have 51 out of 66 seats and the council has been held by Labour for 14 years. But it is conceivable. You would not completely rule it out.
“I would still make Labour just about favourites to hold on to Sefton, but I think it is going to be a mighty close thing. They are definitely going to take hits.”
The only other local elections in Merseyside will take place in Knowsley, where a third of council seats will be contested. Labour will be hoping to retain control of a council where they currently hold 30 out of 45 seats. There are no votes in either Liverpool or Wirral this year.
Professor Tonge added: “St Helens and Sefton are particularly vulnerable because they are all out contests, whereas the damage is limited in other respects – obviously in places where there are no contests. Labour must be mighty relieved there are no elections in Wirral and Liverpool this year.
Like most polling experts, Professor Tonge thinks this week’s elections, which also include votes in the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Senedd, will be awful for Labour.
He said: “It is going to be pretty catastrophic for Labour, probably the worst local election result in living memory.
“Of course governments lose seats in mid-term elections, but the scale of the losses that are being forecast mean that Labour could lose three-quarters of the seats they are contesting. Losing half would be a really bad result, but three quarters would be a phenomenal catastrophe.
“We’re in uncharted territory here because I don’t think Labour has ever had to contend with a serious left-wing party on its left-wing flank (like The Greens), while also losing some working class votes to Reform. We saw in Gorton and Denton that people were just looking for an excuse not to vote Labour.”
Voting in the local elections will take place on Thursday May 7, with results coming in across Thursday night and throughout Friday. The Liverpool ECHO will be bringing you all the action, results and reaction from these crucial elections.
