Mark Carney and the Liberal Party have claimed a remarkable victory in the Canadian election – and it appears to have come with a big assist from Donald Trump.
The US president’s constant badgering of America’s northern neighbour and taunts about making it the 51st US state since his return to office in January coincided with a dramatic reversal in fortune for the centre-left party.
Carney has been almost singularly focused on his neighbour, and this was reflected in his victory speech. After warning that the US wanted Canada’s land and resources, Carney declared: “President Trump is trying to break us so that America can own us. That will never ever happen.”
Until Trump’s return to power, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party had held what looked like high and insurmountable ground in voter preference polls amidst general dissatisfaction with the state of the Canadian economy and 10 years of Liberal government under then leader Justin Trudeau.
The past year has been devastating for incumbent governments around the world, with parties all along the political spectrum losing ground or outright control – with the US, UK, Japan, Germany, France and India among the most prominent examples.
This Canadian general election broke that trend, as the Liberals forced Trudeau to resign and picked a political outsider, former Bank of England chief Carney, as their leader.
He ran hard against what the party continuously characterised as the real threat Trump posed not just to their economy but also to Canada’s very sovereignty.
Although Trump doesn’t appear to have the same distaste for Carney that he clearly held for Trudeau, his political and policy interests and those of Canada now appear destined to continue to diverge.
Already there are indications that Canada is looking more toward Europe as a reliable partner, rather than Trump’s America – a move that is sure to irk the American leader.
Carney has pledged to quickly begin new trade negotiations with Trump in an attempt to stave off US tariffs on Canadian auto exports set to kick in on 3 May.
The Canadian economy, which heavily depends on exports to the US, is at considerable risk if a full trade war erupts, and Carney – an economist by training and a veteran central banker – has promised voters that he will do everything in his power to keep Canada from tumbling into a recession.
Meanwhile, Trump belly-flopped into Canadian politics one more time on Monday, while voters were casting their ballots, again calling the US-Canadian border “artificially drawn” and saying the nation would be better off as a “cherished” American state.
Carney ascended to political power quite suddenly, at a time when his country is facing a generational challenge from its superpower neighbour. Many world leaders are still working out how to deal with Donald Trump in his second term, but few will face this kind of test.
No one should expect those Liberals to say thank you to the American leader, however – or for Trump to soften his rhetoric, even though last month he said he preferred a Liberal prime minister. (He would go on to say that he really didn’t care who won.)
Instead, more of the same is the likely result – more pointed quips about Canada joining the US, more threats of a trade war and more willingness to cast longstanding ties and agreements with America’s northern neighbour into doubt.
The irony, however, is that Trump’s derisive focus on Canada may have denied him a northern neighbour run by, if not a kindred spirit, at least a politician more in line with his populist conservative priorities than Liberal Carney.
While Poilievre, a veteran politician, will never be mistaken for the American businessman-turned-president, they have some similarities – a goal of shrinking government, lowering taxes and trimming social services, a desire to promote fossil fuel production, and a distaste for what they both deride as “woke” leftist culture.
A Conservative victory in this election would have been viewed by many – in America and throughout the world – as a new sign that the Trump win last year was more than just a singular American event. It would have represented what many in Trump’s orbit like to believe is a global movement toward their brand of culturally conservative, anti-elite, anti-immigration, and pro-working-class politics.
