Brent crude has broken below the $90 mark, confirming a decisive shift in market sentiment as geopolitical risks ease. The move follows a sharp selloff triggered by news that the Strait of Hormuz has been declared fully open for commercial shipping during the ceasefire period. The development removes one of the most critical supply risks and accelerates the unwind of the war premium that had supported oil prices in recent weeks.
The catalyst came after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced that passage through Hormuz is “completely open,” aligning with broader de-escalation efforts in the region. The response from Donald Trump further reinforced the shift, with the US leader signaling that negotiations are close to completion and suggesting that “most of the points are already negotiated.” Markets have interpreted this as a strong indication that a deal—at least in principle—is within reach.
Technically, the rejection at the 4H EMA (now at 100.72) was clearly a near term bearish sign. The focus now is on whether Brent crude’s fall would extend through the near term falling channel floor, and close the week below 55 D EMA (now at around 90.85).
If so, that would very well set up further fall towards next key cluster support level at 81.41 (61.8% retracement of 58.88 to 119.70 at 82.11) early next week. In any case, further decline will now remain in favor as long as 95.94 support turned resistance holds.
