1 | European Chamber of Commerce in China and Roland Berger, “Overcapacity in China: An Impediment to the Party’s Reform Agenda,” 2016, https://www.europeanchamber.com.cn/en/publications-overcapacity-in-china; Lu Lanqing 陆澜清, “2016年钢铁行业如何去产能 (How to Reduce the Capacity of the Steel Industry in 2016),” 2016, https://www.qianzhan.com/analyst/detail/329/160225-2671dc64.html; Chinabgao 中国报告大厅, “我国钢铁行业2016年现状：亏损惨重产能过剩 (The Status Quo of China’s Steel Industry in 2016: Heavy Losses and Overcapacity),” 2016, https://www.chinabgao.com/freereport/71999.html; Wang Ming 王明, “去产能与增产量——钢铁去产能困境何解? (De-Capacity and Production Increase – What Is the Solution to the Dilemma of Steel Capacity de-Capacity?),” 2016, https://news.mysteel.com/16/1220/10/FC04C105D8E47F20.html.
2 | Watanabe Shin and Ochiai Shuhei, “China Steel Industry Faces Growing Pressure to Consolidate,” Nikkei Asia, 2023, https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-deals/China-steel-industry-faces-growing-pressure-to-consolidate.
3 | Elaine Kurtenbach, “China Rolls out New Measures to Fix Its Property Crisis, Spur Growth,” AP News, 2024, sec. Business, https://apnews.com/article/china-economy-property-housing-1d650edc0b4f8f580bc20570e9a27519; Amanda Wang, “China Unveils Dramatic Steps to Rescue Property Market,” Australian Financial Review, May 17, 2024, sec. asia, https://www.afr.com/world/asia/china-unveils-dramatic-steps-to-rescue-property-market-20240517-p5jel2; Gao Liangping and Clare Jim, “China Unveils ‘historic’ Steps to Stabilise Crisis-Hit Property Sector,” Reuters, May 17, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/china-new-home-prices-fall-fastest-pace-over-9-years-2024-05-17/.
4 | Qiushi, “Understanding New Quality Productive Forces and Accelerating Their Development,” 2024, http://en.qstheory.cn/2024-05/11/c_985265.htm.
5 | Wang Huirong 王蕙蓉, “习近平：发展新质生产力不是要忽视、放弃传统产业 (Xi Jinping: Developing New Quality Productivity Is Not about Neglecting or Abandoning Traditional Industries),” 2024, https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_26602068.
6 | People’s daily 人民日報, “坚持稳中求进、以进促稳、先立后破 (Insisting on Seeking Progress While Maintaining Stability, Promoting Stability through Progress, and Establishing before Breaking Down),” 2024, http://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/images/2024-02/28/01/rmrb2024022801.pdf, http://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/images/2024-02/28/01/rmrb2024022801.pdf, https://www.gov.cn/yaowen/liebiao/202402/content_6934644.htm
7 | Author’s note: Premier Li Qiang said during his speech that “The foundation for China’s sustained economic recovery and growth is not solid enough, as evidenced by a lack of effective demand, overcapacity in some industries, weak public expectations, and many lingering risks and hidden dangers”. Li Qiang, “REPORT ON THE WORK OF THE GOVERNMENT: Delivered at the Second Session of the 14th National People’s Congress of the People’s Republic of China on March 5, 2024,” 2024.
8 | State Council Information Office, “国新办举行新闻发布会 介绍‘系统落实一揽子增量政策扎实推动经济向上结构向优、发展态势持续向好’有关情况图文实录 (The State Council Information Office Held a Press Conference to Introduce the “systematic Implementation of a Package of Incremental Policies to Solidly Promote the Upward Structural Optimization of the Economy, the Development Trend Continues to Improve),” 2024, http://www.scio.gov.cn/live/2024/34923/tw/.
9 | Xi Jinping, “Comprehensively advance the construction of a strong country and the great cause of national rejuvenation with Chinese-style modernization” (Qiushi, 2024) http://www.qstheory.cn/20241231/d21bd57c012d4d29824219effd18ca35/c.html?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
10 | Max Zenglein and Jacob Gunter, “The party knows best: Aligning economic actors with China’s strategic goals” (Merics, 2023), https://merics.org/de/report/party-knows-best-aligning-economic-actors-chinas-strategic-goals.
11 | OECD, “Steel,” 2025, https://www.oecd.org/en/topics/steel.html.
12 | Julia Wendling, “China’s Steel Demand Through Time,” Visual Capitalist, 2024, https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp/bhp01-chinas-steel-demand-through-time/.
17 | https://worldsteel.org/wp-content/uploads/World-Steel-in-Figures-2024.pdf
18 | https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp/bhp01-chinas-steel-demand-through-time/
19 | https://merics.org/en/merics-briefs/chinas-new-space-science-plan-brics-summit-steel-exports
20 | Cheng Jia 程佳, “国产新能源车进入惨烈‘淘汰赛’ (Domestic New Energy Vehicles Enter Grueling “Elimination Race),” 2024, https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_26761490.
21 | Scott Kennedy, “The Chinese EV Dilemma: Subsidized Yet Striking,” CSIS, 2024, https://www.csis.org/blogs/trustee-china-hand/chinese-ev-dilemma-subsidized-yet-striking.
22 | Central Government of China, “发展新能源汽车是汽车产业转型的主要方向 (The Development of New Energy Vehicles Is the Main Direction of the Transformation of the Automobile Industry),” 2023, https://www.gov.cn/xinwen/jdzc/202306/content_6887675.htm.
23 | Central Government of China, “换设备 换车 换家电……12个领域更新换新细则全面出台! (Replacement of Equipment Replacement of Cars Replacement of Home Appliances ……12 The Rules for Renewal and Replacement in 12 Areas Are in Full Swing!),” 2024, https://www.gov.cn/zhengce/202409/content_6976813.htm.
24 | Julie Zhu, “Exclusive: China’s Xiaomi Wins State Planner Nod to Make EVs amid Glut in Autos,” Reuters, August 23, 2023, https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/chinas-xiaomi-wins-state-planner-nod-make-evs-amid-glut-autos-2023-08-23/.
25 | Trendforce, “Rumors Regarding Price Reductions in Mature Process for Foundries Emerge, Signaling a Further Decrease in Prices in Q2,” 2024, https://www.trendforce.com/news/news/2024/03/26/news-rumors-regarding-price-reductions-in-mature-process-for-foundries-emerge-signaling-a-further-decrease-in-prices-in-q2/.
26 | Deloitte, “2024 Semiconductor Industry Outlook,” 2024, https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/technology-media-and-telecommunications/articles/semiconductor-industry-outlook.html.
27 | Max J. Zenglein, Alexander Brown, and François Chimits, “China’s Economy Leaves a Mixed Picture in Q1,” Merics, April 24, 2024, https://merics.org/en/tracker/chinas-economy-leaves-mixed-picture-q1.
28 | Jimmy Zhang, “中国汽车制造商到2025年将采购25%国产芯片 (Chinese Automakers to Purchase 25% of Domestic Chips by 2025),” EE Times China, 2024, https://www.eet-china.com/news/202405178376.html.
29 | Yuanchuan Investment Review 远川投资评论, “华虹半导体上市，中国芯片代工的另类突围 (Hua Hong Semiconductor’s IPO, an Alternative Breakout for China’s Chip Foundries),” 36kr, 2023, https://36kr.com/p/2403301892219905.
30 | Author’s note: The first two phases of the Big Fund were heavily invested in chipmaking and wafer fabrication plants, driving front-end capacity expansion. Zhang Erchi et al., “Five Things to Know About China’s Scandal-Struck Chip Industry ‘Big Fund’ – Caixin Global,” Caixin Global, 2022, https://www.caixinglobal.com/2022-08-10/five-things-to-know-about-chinas-scandal-struck-chip-industry-big-fund-101924443.html.
31 | Yuanchuan Investment Review 远川投资评论, “半导体的乌云下，他们为什么加码芯片ETF？(Under the Dark Cloud of Semiconductors, Why Are They Adding to Chip ETFs?),” 36kr, 2023, https://36kr.com/p/2401816725807233.
32 | Alexander Brown, François Chimits, and Gregor Sebastian, “Accelerator State: How China Fosters ‘Little Giant’ Companies | Merics” (Merics, August 3, 2023), https://merics.org/en/report/accelerator-state-how-china-fosters-little-giant-companies.
33 | Yi Ouwang 亿欧网, “万亿车芯市场，迎来中国芯 (The Trillion-Dollar Core Market Ushered in China’s Core),” 36kr, January 23, 2025, https://36kr.com/p/2448576843683971.
34 | Paul Triolo, “Legacy Chip Overcapacity in China: Myth and Reality,” CSIS, 2024, https://www.csis.org/blogs/trustee-china-hand/legacy-chip-overcapacity-china-myth-and-reality.
35 | Ben Wodecki, “Xiaomi CEO Launches $1.45B Chinese Chip Fund,” AI Business, 2023, https://aibusiness.com/verticals/xiaomi-ceo-launches-1-45b-chinese-chip-fund.
36 | Jan-Peter Kleinhans et al., “Running on Ice: China’s Chipmakers in a Post-October 7 World,” Rhodium Group, April 4, 2023, https://rhg.com/research/running-on-ice/.
37 | National Development and Reform Commission of China, “氢能产业发展中长期规划（2021-2035 年) (Medium and Long-Term Plan for the Development of Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021-2035)),” 2022, https://www.ndrc.gov.cn/xxgk/zcfb/ghwb/202203/t20220323_1320038.html?code=&state=123https://www.ndrc.gov.cn/xxgk/zcfb/ghwb/202203/t20220323_1320038.html?code=&state=123.
38 | Quan Xiaojing 全小景, “万亿市场潜力的绿氢进入规模化验证阶段 规划、招标项目数量全面暴增 (Green Hydrogen with Trillion-Dollar Market Potential Has Entered the Stage of Large-Scale Verification, and the Number of Planning and Bidding Projects Has Skyrocketed),” Quanjing Caijin 全景财经, 2024, https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/1088547.html.
39 | Liu Canbang 刘灿邦, “万吨级绿色制氢项目大量启动 行业巨头挑大梁 (A Large Number of 10,000-Ton Green Hydrogen Projects Have Been Launched, with Industry Giants Picking up the Slack),” Zhengjuan Shibao 证券时报, June 13, 2024, https://archive.is/L7e4Q.
40 | Chinabaogao 观研报告网, “各地补贴政策频发 多家企业布局 绿氢行业或成我国氢能发展主方向 (Frequent Subsidy Policies in Various Places, and the Layout of Many Enterprises The Green Hydrogen Industry May Become the Main Direction of Hydrogen Energy Development in China),” 2024, https://www.chinabaogao.com/detail/696681.html.
41 | Alexander Brown and Nis Grünberg, “China’s Nascent Green Hydrogen Sector: How Policy, Research and Business Are Forging a New Industry” (Merics, June 28, 2022), https://merics.org/en/report/chinas-nascent-green-hydrogen-sector-how-policy-research-and-business-are-forging-new.
42 | Author’s note: The real utilization rate is likely to be lower. The figures for production capacity are based on company announcements, which may refer to the maximum production capacity of plants and not reflect current production capacity. IEA, “Advancing Clean Technology Manufacturing – An Energy Technology Perspectives Special Report,” May 6, 2024, https://www.iea.org/reports/advancing-clean-technology-manufacturing.
43 | ESCM 中国储能网新闻中心, “电解槽行业即将过剩? (Is There an Impending Surplus in the Electrolyzer Industry?),” 2024, https://www.escn.com.cn/20240411/b04df9822daf4297bd2703253cf0c247/c.html.
44 | Wang Haixia 王海霞, “光伏行业加速洗牌 (Photovoltaic Industry Accelerates Reshuffle),” China Energy News, 2024; Quan Xiaojing 全小景, “万亿市场潜力的绿氢进入规模化验证阶段 规划、招标项目数量全面暴增 (Green Hydrogen with Trillion-Dollar Market Potential Has Entered the Stage of Large-Scale Verification, and the Number of Planning and Bidding Projects Has Skyrocketed)”; Liu Canbang 刘灿邦, “万吨级绿色制氢项目大量启动 行业巨头挑大梁 (A Large Number of 10,000-Ton Green Hydrogen Projects Have Been Launched, with Industry Giants Picking up the Slack).”
45 | Wang Haixia 王海霞, “光伏行业加速洗牌 (Photovoltaic Industry Accelerates Reshuffle).”
46 | Citi, “HYDROGEN: A Reality Check on the Hydrogen Craze,” Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions, 2023.
47 | Polly Martin, “Envision to Build Gigawatt-Scale Green Hydrogen and Ammonia Project in China — with Exports to Europe, Japan and Korea in Mind,” Hydrogen Insight, 2023, https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/production/envision-to-build-gigawatt-scale-green-hydrogen-and-ammonia-project-in-china-with-exports-to-europe-japan-and-korea-in-mind/2-1-1533818?zephr_sso_ott=AppDmB; Sohu, “明阳集团绿氢‘妙手棋’ (Mingyang Group’s Green Hydrogen ‘Magic Chess’),” 2023, https://www.sohu.com/a/745211624_120717004.
48 | Xiangchenghui 香橙会, “30家上市公司跑步入场，谁能切分到电解槽市场大蛋糕？(30 Listed Companies Are Running to Enter the Market, Who Can Cut the Big Cake of the Electrolyzer Market?),” Of Week 维科网, June 13, 2024, https://archive.is/4PV9a.
49 | IEA, “Advancing Clean Technology Manufacturing – An Energy Technology Perspectives Special Report.”
50 | Zhong Rui 仲蕊, “电解槽企业忙‘出海’ (Electrolyzer Companies Are Busy ‘Going to Sea’),” People’s Daily 人民日報, 2023, http://paper.people.com.cn/zgnyb/html/2023-10/30/content_26025123.htm.
51 | GoalFore Advisory 国复咨询, “电解槽企业出海‘论剑’ (Electrolyzer Companies Go Overseas to ‘Debate’),” 2024, https://news.goalfore.cn/latest/detail/54082.html; Liu Jia 刘佳, “氢能产业步入发展快车道 (The Hydrogen Energy Industry Has Entered the Fast Lane of Development),” Xinhua 新华, 2024, http://www.news.cn/energy/20240325/0031fb515b8241f3bf388e80723aea7e/c.html.
52 | Chinabaogao 观研报告网, “各地补贴政策频发 多家企业布局 绿氢行业或成我国氢能发展主方向.(Frequent Subsidy Policies in Various Places, and the Layout of Many Enterprises The Green Hydrogen Industry May Become the Main Direction of Hydrogen Energy Development in China),” 2024, https://www.chinabaogao.com/detail/696681.html.
53 | Bloomberg News, “China Solar Leaders Urge Government Intervention to Cure Slump,” June 11, 2024, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-11/china-solar-leaders-urge-government-intervention-to-cure-slump.
54 | Xiangchenghui 香橙会, “30家上市公司跑步入场，谁能切分到电解槽市场大蛋糕？(30 Listed Companies Are Running to Enter the Market, Who Can Cut the Big Cake of the Electrolyzer Market?).”
