With a trip to the Spanish Super Cup final against Barcelona on the line, Atlético Madrid and Real Madrid are set to clash for the 242nd time in history.

The Madrid neighbors are taking their heated rivalry to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia just four months after the first Madrid derby of the season stole headlines across Spain. Diego Simeone led his side to a dominant 5–2 victory over Real Madrid back in September, leaving the 15-time European champions battered and humiliated at the Metropolitano.

Los Blancos will no doubt have redemption on the mind come Thursday’s match, especially with pressure mounting on both Xabi Alonso and his men. A failure in the Spanish Super Cup could cost the Spaniard his place on the touchline, and his team even more embarrassment given their recent struggles.

Atlético Madrid, meanwhile, would love nothing more than to make it two victories in a row against their bitter rivals to punch their ticket to the Spanish Super Cup final. Los Colchoneros have only ever hoisted the trophy twice, and their last win came back in 2014.

Here is Sports Illustrated’s guide to the game.

Atlético Madrid vs. Real Madrid Head-to-Head Record (Last Five Games)

Current Form (All Competitions)

Simeone remains unable to call on Clément Lenglet and Nicolás González, who are nursing knee and thigh injuries respectively. Both players are expected back before the end of January, but failed to recover in time to make the trip to Jeddah.

Pablo Barrios, on the other hand, was included in Atlético Madrid’s Spanish Super Cup squad and traveled with the team despite suffering a calf injury at the weekend. The Spaniard faces a late fitness test for Thursday’s clash, with Conor Gallagher ready to take his place in the midfield if needed.

In defense, José María Giménez is in line to make his first appearance in six weeks after recovering from a hamstring injury. The Uruguayan’s return will have Los Colchoneros brimming with confidence, especially with Julián Alvarez leading the way up top.

Atlético Madrid predicted lineup vs. Real Madrid (4-4-2): Oblak; Llorente, Giménez, Pubill, Hancko; Simeone, Gallagher, Koke, Baena; Sørloth, Alvarez.

If Real Madrid want to claim Spanish Super Cup glory, they will have to do so without Kylian Mbappé. The club’s leading goalscorer remains in Spain’s capital due to a knee injury, leaving the door open for Gonzalo García to get the nod in his place.

Mbappé joins Éder Militão in the infirmary. Brahim Díaz is also unavailable for the Madrid derby as he remains with Morocco at the Africa Cup of Nations.

The good news for Alonso is Dean Huijsen, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Dani Carvajal all made the trip to Jeddah. The Spanish center back is in line to start alongside Antonio Rüdiger in defense, while Federico Valverde retains his somewhat unwanted place on the right flank.

Real Madrid predicted lineup vs. Atlético Madrid (4-4-2): Courtois; Valverde, Rüdiger, Huijsen, Carreras; Rodrygo, Camavinga, Tchouaméni, Bellingham; G. García, Vinicius Junior.

Despite the lopsided nature of September’s Madrid derby, clashes between Atlético Madrid and Real Madrid are more often than not low-scoring affairs decided by one stunning moment for either side. Harsh tackles and disciplined defenses typically take center stage in place of goalscoring thrillers.

Alonso’s men have the slight edge in Thursday’s contest, though, even without Mbappé. The 15-time European champions sent five goals past Real Betis at the weekend while Los Colchoneros only managed a 1–1 draw with 15th place Real Sociedad.

Plus, Los Blancos will be chomping at the bit to enact revenge for their embarrassing defeat four months ago. A newfound confidence combined with an eagerness for redemption gets Real Madrid to the Spanish Super Cup final.

Prediction: Atlético Madrid 1–2 Real Madrid

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