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MongoDB (MDB) has been drawing attention after a sharp pullback, with the share price showing a decline of about 29% over the past month and roughly 37% over the past 3 months.

See our latest analysis for MongoDB.

Zooming out, the recent 29% 1 month and 37% 3 month share price declines, with MongoDB now at US$260.50, sit against a 12 month total shareholder return of about 41%. As a result, recent momentum appears to be fading following a strong prior run.

If the recent pullback has you reassessing your tech exposure, this can be a handy moment to scan a focused list of 62 profitable AI stocks that aren’t just burning cash as potential next ideas.

With MongoDB now at US$260.50, trading at a small implied intrinsic discount and well below average analyst targets, investors may need to consider whether this represents a genuine reset or whether the market is already accounting for its future growth.

According to the widely followed narrative by Vestra, MongoDB’s fair value of $362.40 sits well above the last close at $260.50, framing the current slide as a valuation reset rather than a simple loss of interest.

The fair value for MongoDB (MDB) is calculated by applying a 10.5x Forward EV/Sales multiple to the 2027 revenue estimate of $2.88 billion. This specific multiple is a sharp reduction from the 15x to 18x range seen in 2024-2025, reflecting the lower 17% growth guidance and the inherent risk in a “C-suite” leadership transition during a critical AI cycle.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what underpins a fair value well above today’s price? The narrative leans heavily on future revenue scale, richer margins and a cash generation profile that points to a very different earnings mix ahead.

Result: Fair Value of $362.40 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, this hinges on management executing through C suite turnover and on AI related demand not slowing further; both of these factors could challenge that fair value.

Find out about the key risks to this MongoDB narrative.

Set against Vestra’s 28.1% undervalued view, our P/S based work paints a tighter picture. At 8.5x P/S, MongoDB trades above the US IT industry at 1.8x, above peers at 6.4x, and above our 7.7x fair ratio, which suggests less room for error if growth expectations cool again.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

If this mix of caution and optimism leaves you uncertain, it is worth checking the numbers yourself and deciding promptly where you stand, including reviewing the 3 key rewards to see what is driving current optimism.

If this MongoDB reset has you rethinking your next move, do not stop here. Lining up fresh ideas now can help keep you a step ahead.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include MDB.

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