Stock markets dipped across the board early on Monday, with traders nervous after another weekend yielded no real signs of deescalation in Iran or the wider Gulf region or a reduction in the rising energy prices the conflict is causing.
Several of the major Asian markets dipped by 3% or more, while Europe’s main indices all shed in the region of 2% in morning trading. Government bond yields were up and even the traditional safe havens gold and silver shed more than 6% and 7% of their values.
However, an apparent change in tone from US President Donald Trump as he woke in the US prompted a rally on European markets and a positive start to trading in the US.
Where did key stocks and prices stand early on Monday?
Asia’s markets had a torrid time, closing for business before Trump began to tout supposed bilateral talks with Iran that Tehran is yet to confirm took place. This was the abridged story of the morning’s trade:
- Germany’s DAX dipped during the morning, and was down by just over 2% as of midday local time
- France’s CAC 40 was also roughly 2% down, while the FTSE 100 in London logged similar numbers until a small spike recouped much of the losses late in the morning
- Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 closed down 3.5% at 51,515.49, having dipped lower still in the course of the day
- South Korea’s Kospi nosedived by roughly 6.5% to 5,405.75
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was down 3.5%, while the Shanghai Composite shed 3.6% in a single day
- Taiwan’s Taiex shed 2.5% while Australia’s A&P/ASX 200 fared somewhat better, sliding by just 0.7%
- Gold and silver, major gainers in recent years, were both in freefall, down almost 7% and 8%, respectively
- Crude oil was one of few prices to rise, but only marginally
- Western governments’ 10-year bond yields also showed modest gains across the board
When and where did the afternoon rally take effect?
At around midday in Europe, as Donald Trump started singing a moderately different tune to his weekend threats, the main indices jumped back into positive territory for the day and began to log cautious gains. With the close of trade approaching in Europe, and Wall Street open for business, the ever-volatile market mood had swung:
- The DAX rebounded past 23,000 points, nearing gains of 3% at one point before closing up 1.22%
- France’s CAC 40 was just over 2% in the green briefly and gained 0.8% for the day
- The FTSE 100 in London ended in the red, but only by 0.25%
- The Dow Jones was up 2.22% by late morning in New York, and the S&P 500 was not too far behind, up 1.78%; these gains pared slightly as the day continued
- Gold had recovered some of its worst losses from the morning, while silver briefly returned to positive territory
- Crude oil prices tumbled by about 9%, dropping back below $90 per barrel
- Various cryptocurrencies also moved from losses back towards gains, with the uncertainty characterized above all by a high volume of volatile, fast-moving trading
Torrid March for traders despite Monday’s rally
Germany’s DAX, like most major western markets, has fallen considerably overall throughout the month since the US and Israeli strikes on Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and many other senior officials starting on February 28.
The main German index slipped below 22,000 points early on Monday, having traded higher than 25,000 prior to the first attacks on Tehran. That’s was a peak dip of more than 12%, but it recovered to 9.3% before the close of trade. The market is at its lowest ebb since early April last year, in the aftermath of the panic caused by US President Donald Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs imposed on most of the world, including Europe.
France’s CAC 40 has also shed 9% of its value in a month, despite Monday afternoon’s rally.
The UK’s FTSE 100 has fared slightly better, sliding 7.4% in a month, perhaps in part because of the UK’s own oil resources. US markets have slid more or less in line with the values seen in the UK, with the Dow Jones down roughly 5% and the S&P 500 shedding around 3.4% of its value in that period.
Strait of Hormuz still blocked, few signs regional de-esclation
Monday’s followed Trump’s weekend threat that the US would “obliterate” Iran’s power plants unless if fully opens the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, which prompted Tehran to say that it would respond to any such strikes by targeting US and Israeli energy and infrastructure assets in the region.
Earlier on Monday, the executive director of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, also warned that the current economic instability caused by the war with Iran had the potential to prove more severe than the two oil shocks of the 1970s and the aftermath of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine combined.
“This crisis as things stand is now two oil crises and one gas crash put all together,” Birol said, describing the situation as a “major, major threat” to the global economy.
The rising energy prices are also confouding investors’ hopes of likely interest rate cuts, which they previously anticipated in the course of this year, because higher fuel costs apply inflationary pressure that makes it riskier for central banks to reduce the cost of borrowing.
Edited by: Elizabeth Schumacher
