As the deadline set by Trump for Iran ceasefire negotiations arrived at Eastern Time Tuesday evening, global market sentiment tightened again: international oil prices fluctuated higher, US stock futures fell, and Bitcoin erased the previous day’s gains. Limited ceasefire signals and ongoing escalation risks were in a tug-of-war, leading investors to generally choose to wait and see.

According to Xinhua News Agency, The Wall Street Journal reported on April 6 that mediators were pessimistic about Iran ‘s prospects of “succumbing” and reopening the Strait of Hormuz before the deadline set by U.S. President Trump. The possibility of a ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran is “fading.” Some U.S. officials stated that, prior to the final deadline set for 8:00 PM Eastern Time on April 7, the positions of the U.S. and Iran remained “too far apart to bridge.”

Brent crude oil rose 1.2% to over $110 per barrel but had fluctuated multiple times between gains and losses earlier; US stock index futures dropped by 0.4%; early gains in Asian stock markets narrowed to 0.5%, led by technology stocks — which are considered sectors less affected by Middle East conflicts; Bitcoin fell more than 2% to about $68,800, erasing all of its previous day’s brief surge above $70,000.

Singapore’s Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan warned in an interview with Bloomberg Television, “The market is certainly not pricing in the worst-case scenario at present,” and the economic shock triggered by this war could worsen further. eToro market analyst Josh Gilbert stated, “This is a market entirely driven by headlines” — news of a ceasefire framework pushed stocks higher and oil prices down, but then Trump’s threat to destroy Iran’s infrastructure reversed sentiment, exposing market fragility.

• US stock index futures fell by 0.4%; European stock futures pointed to a flat opening;
• Gains in Asian stock markets narrowed to 0.5% in early trading, led by technology stocks — which are considered sectors less affected by Middle East conflicts;
• The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose 1 basis point to 4.34%;
• The yield on Japan’s 10-year bond fell 2.5 basis points to 2.400%;
• The US Dollar Index remained largely unchanged;
• Brent crude oil futures rose 0.4% over seven days to $110.19 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures climbed 2.8% to $115.31.
• Gold hovered narrowly around $4,645 per ounce, having fallen more than 10% since the outbreak of the conflict.
• Bitcoin fell more than 2% to approximately $68,800, erasing all gains from the brief surge above $70,000 the previous day.

Oil Prices: The Strait of Hormuz Dictates Market Direction

Since the outbreak of conflict at the end of February, Brent crude oil has surged by about 50%. The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial channel for Middle Eastern oil exports, remains the focal point of market attention. Trump insists that any ceasefire agreement must include specific provisions to ensure the waterway remains open, a stance that further narrows the scope for negotiations.

This war has resulted in thousands of deaths and triggered the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. Support for the war is waning among the American public, with consumers bearing the brunt of gasoline prices exceeding $4 per gallon on average, and Trump has yet to find a way to end the conflict.

Nick Twidale, Chief Market Analyst at AT Global Markets, wrote in a report: “Market participants will remain highly sensitive to every development in the Middle East situation, which continues to be the primary driver of sentiment. The current bias seems to lean toward the downside.”

Equities and Forex: Mild Volatility Amid Stalemate Between Bulls and Bears

Global stock markets have oscillated repeatedly between hopes for a ceasefire and fears of escalation. According to an article by Wall Street News, Trump set April 7 at 20:00 EST as the deadline. Reports indicate that plans for a large-scale joint U.S.-Israeli bombing of Iran’s energy infrastructure are ready and awaiting Trump’s order; Iran, in turn, issued an ultimatum to the U.S., vowing not to back down and escalating domestic mobilization. Despite ongoing mediation efforts, Pentagon officials remain skeptical of Trump, noting: “If the president believes an agreement is imminent, he might decide to delay the deadline.”

European stock index futures point to a muted opening; gold is trading narrowly around $4,645 per ounce, having dropped over 10% since the start of the conflict; the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note rose one basis point to 4.34%.

JPMorgan’s G10 currency one-month volatility index rose 17 basis points to 7.98% on Monday but remained within its recent range, indicating that market concerns over the looming deadline were moderate and had not reached extreme levels.

Bloomberg MLIV Asia strategist Mark Cranfield pointed out that risk sentiment tightened significantly on Tuesday, with U.S. stock futures turning negative and oil futures rising, reflecting the fragile pattern typical of investors awaiting Trump’s latest deadline. However, he also noted that the declines in Asian markets may not necessarily extend into U.S. trading hours. Hideyuki Ishiguro, Chief Strategist at Nomura Asset Management, stated that volatility indices in Japan, the U.S., and Europe have retreated from their peaks, suggesting that “the market may have already priced in these risks to a considerable extent.”

Bitcoin: Retreat Alongside Risk Assets as Institutional Inflows Provide Support

Bitcoin fell more than 2% to approximately $68,800 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday, while Ethereum dropped over 2.8% in the same period, erasing the previous day’s brief surge above $70,000. BTC Markets analyst Rachael Lucas noted that sentiment for Bitcoin “remains bearish in the medium to short term,” with the market in wait-and-see mode. “Bulls lack sufficient confidence to sustain the breakout, while bears are unable to form a decisive downward move.”

Nevertheless, there have been signs of resilience at the institutional level: U.S.-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $471.3 million on Monday, following net inflows of $22.3 million the previous week. Since early March, Bitcoin’s price has largely oscillated within the range of $65,000 to $75,000, with overall cryptocurrency trading activity remaining subdued since the significant sell-off in October last year.

Macroeconomic Data: Inflation Figures Become the Next Key Focus

While closely monitoring geopolitical developments, the market is also awaiting key inflation data this week. Data released on Monday showed that the pace of expansion in the U.S. service sector slowed in March, with employment posting its largest decline since 2023, while input prices accelerated, reflecting a scenario of sluggish growth alongside inflationary pressures.

Nationwide’s Mark Hackett believes that although investors are currently focusing primarily on geopolitical risks, macroeconomic data continues to indicate “a resilient economy and a still constructive earnings outlook,” a backdrop that should not be overlooked.