Arsenal travel to Manchester City this Sunday six points ahead of Pep Guardiola’s side at the top of the table, but City have a game in hand having played 31 matches to Arsenal’s 32. A win for City and many will start expecting them to take the title, despite Arteta’s team having topped the table since September.
Having dropped points in January and February (draws against Liverpool, Nottingham Forest, Brentford and Wolves; and a loss to Manchester United), Arsenal had actually been solid in the league until defeat to Bournemouth last weekend, which combined with a 3-0 City win cut the gap to those six points.
However the fact that Arsenal lost the Carabao Cup final to Manchester City, were knocked out of the FA Cup by Southampton in the quarterfinals, and looked lackluster against Sporting in their Champions League quarterfinal, despite advancing, has left many wondering if their season is about to fall apart.
Recent Arsenal end-of-season collapses
There is a perception that Arsenal have regularly suffered late-season collapses in recent years. Here’s what actually happened:
2022-23
This is the clearest example. Arsenal were five points clear at the top with 11 games to go, but a poor run-in saw them lose control of the title race. The defining moment came in a 4-1 defeat to Manchester City, which effectively handed the initiative to Guardiola’s side. From there, the contrast was stark: City took 31 points from their final 12 games, while Arsenal managed just 21. A double-digit swing in the run-in turned a strong position into a missed opportunity.
2024-25
Another genuine stumble, though less dramatic in terms of table position. Arsenal were locked in a tight race with Liverpool but dropped points at key moments late in the season, including a damaging home defeat to Bournemouth in May. Those results allowed Liverpool to pull away, eventually finishing 10 points clear. Arsenal didn’t collapse in a single week, but they lost control gradually when it mattered most.
2021-22
Arsenal were never in the title race. This was a battle for Champions League qualification, not the league title. They finished strongly but ultimately fell short of the top four, taking 18 points from their final 12 games to finish eighth. This was simply a gap in quality rather than a late-season collapse.
2023-24
No collapse here either. Arsenal stayed in the title race until the final day and even led the table at points in May. The difference was marginal: Manchester City edged them in the run-in, earning just one more point over the final stretch to take the title by two. Note that both sides won their last five games. Arsenal performed at a championship level, but City were slightly better when it counted.
The truth of Arsenal collapse late on
Only two recent seasons truly fit the narrative of Arsenal letting the title slip late: 2022-23, where they lost a clear lead during the run-in, and 2024-25 when they dropped key points late on.
The other years were either not title challenges or were decided by Manchester City’s consistency rather than Arsenal falling apart.
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