Arsenal winning at Manchester City on Sunday would mean more than just taking a huge step towards the Premier League title – it would finally be proof that Mikel Arteta can deliver when it matters most.

The seismic top-of-the-table clash at the Etihad Stadium, live on Sky Sports, isn’t a must-win for Arsenal in the context of the league table. A draw would be enough to keep Man City at arm’s length with little margin for error in the final month. But for Arteta, a victory would be a defining moment with a year left on his contract.

In any case, Arsenal should be wary of playing for a draw. Their stalemate at Man City in March 2024, when Liverpool held a two-point lead at the top, was seen as a good result. It was framed as progress, a disciplined response to the 4-1 defeat there a year earlier that accelerated City’s march to a third consecutive title.

“We have made a big step,” said Arteta afterwards. “We have experienced what happened here last year and we have come across in a different way.” City, though, went on to clinch their sixth title in seven seasons with a two-point margin over Arsenal – second again.

That is the uncomfortable pattern currently defining Arteta’s time at the club. He needs a statement victory. He needs to prove he can get Arsenal over the line. And in their biggest game for over 20 years, it has to be now.

For all the progress the club has made during his six-and-a-half seasons, there is just one trophy to show for it, which came at an empty Wembley Stadium in his first six months.

Defeat to City in the Carabao Cup final in March was the latest blow in Arteta’s quest for silverware. There has been semi-final defeats in the Champions League, the Europa League and twice in the League Cup.

Arsenal’s loss to Southampton in the FA Cup quarter-finals this month was as far as they’ve been in the competition since they won it.

Arsenal have taken 12 points from the current top six, with only Man City left to face. The 33 Premier League winners have taken, on average, 18 points from their closest rivals on the way to the title. In none of Arteta’s five full seasons have Arsenal reached the 18-point mark.

Beating the top six is not always decisive in a title race, losing to Bournemouth or drawing at Wolves can be just as damaging, but it is in these defining moments that titles and reputations are shaped.

“I’ve always said to win a title you have to land one on your opponent and it’s time for Arteta and Arsenal to do that,” said Sky Sports’ Gary Neville.

There was a period between May 2023 and August last year when Arsenal went 22 games unbeaten against the ‘big six’ – Man Utd, Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham. It was the longest-ever run in Premier League history and what do they have to show for it?

In the same season that they thumped Man City 5-1 at the Emirates, Arsenal drew with champions Liverpool twice. It is the odd contradiction of Arteta’s Arsenal: capable of matching anyone, but still searching for the big moment that truly defines them.

Arteta’s spell at Arsenal draws comparisons with Gareth Southgate’s time in charge of England. Two teams rebuilt from decline and taken to the brink of success not seen for decades, yet without winning silverware.

Southgate was judged in short bursts of tournament football where margins are fine. Arteta is measured against Pep Guardiola’s Man City team, which has shown an unprecedented period of domination in the Premier League.

Guardiola is the extraordinary level Arteta must surpass over a full season. Every meeting is a question of whether the apprentice can outsmart the master. With Arteta set to enter the final year of his contract, how much longer can Arsenal keep falling at the final hurdle?

And so that is why Sunday’s showdown has become more than a title decider, but the ultimate test of Arteta’s credentials.

Watch Man City vs Arsenal on Sky Sports Premier League from 4pm on Sunday, kick-off 4.30pm