There are three P’s that can be relied upon to fill the festive period, often more than you (or your bank account) can stomach: presents, pudding, and the Premier League.
Yet as the fixture list rumbles on, some sides look set for an easier schedule to swallow. Balancing opposition difficulty, form and fitness, here’s the analysis of the traditional ‘Big Six’ and their league matches between Christmas and the New Year.
Liverpool
Strength of schedule rating: (15th/20 hardest)
After what had looked set to be a biting winter period at Anfield, the forecast looks much sunnier following an unbeaten December.
Alexander Isak’s leg fracture has undoubtedly dampened the Christmas cheer but the fact it was sustained in a successful, albeit rather unconvincing, victory at Tottenham Hotspur was a marker of Liverpool’s greater resilience in recent weeks.
That win in north London made it three wins and two draws across the last five league games for Arne Slot’s side, who could have accumulated another two points had it not been for a stoppage-time collapse at Leeds United.
The absences of Isak and Mohamed Salah (who is at the Africa Cup of Nations with Egypt) are a blow to their options up front but the continued production of Hugo Ekitike and increasingly frequent flashes of brilliance from Florian Wirtz should leave them amply equipped to unpick the division’s two worst away sides.
There is no need to twist the knife into Wolverhampton Wanderers any further but they are on pace to be the league’s worst team. Granted, they gave league leaders Arsenal a frightful scare at the Emirates earlier this month but last Saturday’s miserable 2-0 home defeat to a Brentford side who have been wretched on the road was a new nadir in a season of cavernous lows.
A resurgent Leeds are flying high after swatting aside Crystal Palace but Daniel Farke’s side have been timid when leaving the cauldron of Elland Road, losing six of eight away games and shipping 19 in the process.
A valiant loss at Manchester City and a point at Brentford in their last two road trips are signs of marked improvement, though, and ex-Everton marksman Dominic Calvert-Lewin would no doubt love to continue his history-making scoring streak against his former enemy.
Fulham’s remarkable near-fightback against Manchester City showed they are capable of raising their game at Craven Cottage and anything is possible with the current state of Harry Wilson’s left boot, but Marco Silva’s side have already lost three times at home this season.
Put nine achievable points on the board, and the crisis talk of November will seem a lifetime ago in Liverpool, all before heading to Arsenal for what could be a monumental clash.
Manchester United
Strength of schedule rating: (19th/20 hardest)
Signs of progress and yet, just one win against the league’s doomed team to show for it: Manchester United will welcome a kind-looking festive fixture list after an up-and-down December. Indeed, the numbers show that United have the second-easiest strength of schedule over Christmas. Welcome relief, indeed.
A straightforward victory at Wolves was sandwiched between home draws of widely contrasting entertainment levels against West Ham United and Bournemouth before Sunday’s narrow defeat at Aston Villa, where Ruben Amorim was left to rue a glaring late miss from Matheus Cunha.
The Portuguese head coach’s woes have been deepened by injuries to the seemingly indestructible Bruno Fernandes and the unfavoured Kobbie Mainoo, leaving United light in the middle of the pitch after front-line losses of Bryan Mbeumo and Amad Diallo to AFCON.
In that sense, the upcoming visitors to Old Trafford could not have arrived at a better time. Newcastle United’s bleak record outside St James’ Park this campaign is well-documented: four of their seven away goals came in their only road win at Everton, with Eddie Howe’s team picking up just six points from a possible 24.
Then there is the Wolves at home coupon to cash in, with United having already put four past Rob Edwards’ side at Molineux on December 8.
A new year’s trip to what will undoubtedly be a belligerent Elland Road is a daunting proposition but Amorim’s players have already emerged triumphant amid a hostile rival atmosphere once this season, having won 2-1 at Liverpool in October.
Manchester United head coach Ruben Amorim against West Ham (Oli Scarff via Getty Images)
Manchester City
Strength of schedule rating: (14th/20 hardest)
With seven wins in a row, is there even such a thing as a tough fixture list for Manchester City right now?
Since shipping four in that narrowly-avoided implosion at Fulham in early December, Pep Guardiola’s team have been breached just once in 450 minutes (plus stoppage time) of football: a strike from Real Madrid’s Rodrygo at the Bernabeu.
With Erling Haaland continuing to guzzle records like pigs in blankets and the twinkling toes of Phil Foden and Rayan Cherki shimmying just behind, City head into back-to-back away trips full of confidence as they bid to reel in Arsenal.
Forest are a different proposition under Sean Dyche from the team swept aside by Chelsea in October to mark the end of the fleeting Ange Postecoglou era, even after Monday night’s defeat against Fulham.
Yet only Spurs and the current bottom three have picked up fewer points at home than Forest, with City making light work of Crystal Palace the last time they left Manchester.
The Stadium of Light on New Year’s Day looks to be a far sterner test of City’s title credentials but as superb as Sunderland have been on their own patch, joining Arsenal as the league’s only unbeaten home sides, no other squad has been hit as hard by AFCON call-ups.
Four of the starting line-up that Regis Le Bris selected in the Wear-Tyne derby triumph against Newcastle were subsequently unavailable for the trip to Brighton, where Sunderland looked noticeably leggy in the latter stages, even as they dug in for a solid point.
Three days later, City host potential future boss Enzo Maresca and Chelsea, the league’s best away outfit after Arsenal and Crystal Palace. Chelsea have often saved their best performances for the big games and fought back valiantly where City couldn’t to earn a point at Newcastle, but have a dire record at the Etihad.
Not since May 2021 have Chelsea left Manchester with three points, with a 1-1 draw in 2024 the only occasion they have since avoided defeat and just the second time since that they have found the net. An aggregate score of 13-2 across that period makes for grim reading.
Arsenal
Strength of schedule rating: (Third/20 hardest)
The marathon continues for Arsenal, who will have played eight games in a month by the time the New Year’s fireworks launch.
So far, so good for Mikel Arteta’s title chasers, whose late defeat at Aston Villa is their only true blemish in December. The victories against Brentford, Wolves and Everton were by no means spectacular, but ultimately enough to take a two-point lead into Brighton’s upcoming visit.
Brighton have not been formidable on their travels, losing four of their eight away games, but do have previous in the capital after stunning Chelsea 3-1 at Stamford Bridge in late September.
The Emirates has been a happy hunting ground too, with Brighton only losing three times there in the league since promotion in 2017, winning on three occasions and drawing twice.
Kai Havertz and Gabriel’s imminent return will be a welcome boost but four games in 10 days is a huge test of Arsenal’s improved squad depth, with the division’s form team, Aston Villa, waiting in the wings before 2025 is through.
Unai Emery’s team have already burnt Arsenal once in December and will be bursting with confidence should they make it 11 wins in a row (in all competitions) at Chelsea three days prior.
A trip to Bournemouth is a kinder looking finish but only Everton have won on the south coast so far this campaign, and it took a late deflected strike from Jack Grealish for it to happen.
Five days later, reigning champions Liverpool pull into town. Arsenal were top at Christmas in 2002-03, 2007-08, 2022-23 and 2023-24 only to fall short come May: holding the lead come mid-January would be a huge statement of intent and this run is a real test of their title credentials.
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Chelsea
Strength of schedule rating: (Second/20 hardest)
Smooth sailing it has not been and the festive period could make the going even choppier. They have to see off no less than two of the current top three to make it happen.
It would be a daunting proposition for a team who have already lost to Leeds and Atalanta in recent weeks, but Enzo Maresca’s young charges have made a habit of saving their best performances for the toughest opposition.
That quirk was on full display in the second half at St James’ Park last Saturday, as a peach of a Reece James free kick helped Chelsea cut back a two-goal deficit at Newcastle and preserve their top four position.
Strangely then, it may well be the visit of Bournemouth that fills Chelsea fans with the most trepidation when scanning the next set of fixtures.
The Cherries have won just once away from home so far, a 1-0 win at Spurs in late August, but have previous in SW6: only more James set-piece heroics denied them a fourth league win at Stamford Bridge since 2015 in January.
Tottenham
Strength of schedule rating: (11th/20 hardest)
Football is a simple game. 22 men chase a ball for 90 minutes and at the end, Tottenham have still yet to muster a chance on goal.
It’s been tough sledding for Spurs under Thomas Frank and the numbers are bleak, especially at home. After defeat against Liverpool, it is perhaps a slight relief that two games on the road against Crystal Palace and Brentford follow.
The rarely-spotted home win against the latter a few weeks back will offer some reason for hope, too.
Speculation around Frank’s job has been rife in recent weeks but The Athletic’s Jack Pitt-Brook reports that he has the backing of the board. Turning results around over Christmas will be just the gift Frank needs.
