Chinese leaders assess that the United States is distracted, and its leadership lacks strategic vision.
There is a famous meme derived from the hit 1990s NBC sitcom, Seinfeld. The meme is posted in response usually to when a fight erupts online: it shows the titular character, Jerry Seinfeld, sitting with a smirk on his face and eating popcorn. The notion is that the poster has no side in the fight and is merely watching it in bemusement.
This meme was how one China expert in Beijing explained to me Chinese leaders’ attitudes about the United States under President Donald Trump’s leadership. (His only correction was that the Chinese elite were eating watermelons, more or less popcorn’s equivalent in China—where popcorn itself never really took off.) Put simply, Chinese leaders believe that the United States under Trump will be better for Chinese interests.
Most Chinese elites are skeptical about what Trump is trying to achieve. They don’t understand his anti-corruption methods. Chinese leaders don’t see a grand strategy on U.S. foreign policy at play. Indeed, most Chinese leaders believe that Trump’s efforts will collapse in the long run under the weight of its own ideological contradictions—and the inevitable opposition the forty-seventh president of the United States will receive from the domestic political system.
Beijing Thinks a War is Coming Soon
That being the case, it becomes more likely, rather than less, that China will make a strategic calculation that now is the time to strike one of its neighbors. The strike could target the Philippines in the South China Sea, or the contested Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, or perhaps Taiwan itself. Whatever the case, Beijing believes that Trump will be overwhelmed and unable to prevent China’s actions, or to reverse them once they are complete. Whether this is true or not is irrelevant: this is what many Chinese elites believe.
This line of thinking should not be taken lightly. Throughout history, grave strategic miscalculations have been made by upstart nations believing their status quo great power rivals are no longer the dominant powers they once were. Sometimes these assumptions are correct—as when Japan attacked the ailing Russian Empire in 1904, judging it to be overextended and weak. Other times, these beliefs are ruinous for the attacking power—as when Japan acted on the same assumptions against the United States forty years later.
But the Trump administration must step outside the media frenzy that has engulfed the nation’s capital since his inauguration, and understand that the Chinese might be preparing to strike. Yes, President Xi Jinping of China is sending flowery love letters to Trump—and Trump is reciprocating, all in the hopes that he can get a better deal. This is the correct play: Trump should seek a better deal with China. Peace is good for business. But war can be good for business, too—especially if you are a Chinese leader who believes that your country is ascendant and that some of your neighbors, like Taiwan, the Philippines, or Japan, are ripe for the geopolitical picking.
Understanding the Intent of Chinese Propaganda
A recent spate of Chinese propaganda videos has proliferated across Chinese media sources. These videos indicate that China is more ready than ever to initiate a massive military move against one of their neighbors—most likely, though not certainly, Taiwan.
Chinese propaganda talks openly about their 2 million-man active-duty army that is on 24/7 standby. These propaganda videos highlight the fact that China has the greatest mobilization capacity in all of East Asia. These videos then go on to explain that China is ready to operate at “Level One Readiness,” a state of military preparedness that has only been activated six times since the founding of the Chinese Communist Party. Level One is the equivalent of Defcon One in the United States military. It means China is at war.
While propaganda videos are generally designed to mislead and misinform, the fact of the matter is that these videos are being proliferated at increased levels, indicating an official narrative is taking shape in China. That narrative is that the Chinese military can—and likely will—take drastic action against one of China’s neighbors. They are doing this because Chinese leaders assess that the United States is distracted, and its leadership lacks strategic vision.
But China’s elites are wrong in their assessments—as much so as the Japanese elites who goaded for war with the United States eighty-five years ago. Regardless of how things play out, we are nearer to a major hostile action by Beijing than ever before. Be watching the Indo-Pacific closely in the coming months.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a Senior Fellow at the Center for the National Interest, and a contributor at Popular Mechanics, consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Alexander Khitrov.
