A lot has happened since the beginning of April. The US sent a spacecraft around the moon and back. They had Coachella (twice) and also Stagecoach. Spirit Airlines was pushed to the brink of bankruptcy, and now the US government wants to bail it out. Life comes at you fast.
When you include the Iran war and its assorted developments, we really packed a lot into a single month.
And that doesn’t even include the madness in markets, which churned out historically impressive superlatives seemingly on a daily basis. There have been streaks galore in stocks, which rallied off multi-month March 30 lows with a rarely seen ferocity. Markets have had a moment in April, and the moves to go along with it.
It was difficult to pick just three stats to highlight, but ultimately, the three below best embody where investors’ heads are heading into May. (Note that we are pacing for these superlatives as of the April 29 close. Monthly figures are subject to change, especially with so many tech companies reporting earnings.)
1. The S&P 500’s best month since 2020
The benchmark index’s roaring more-than-9% gain in April can best be attributed to one simple pivot: investors started looking past Iran-war headwinds and towards accelerating earnings growth.
Once traders got comfortable with the progress being made during peace talks, it was an easy choice to pile back into depressed stocks. Profit growth is historically the primary engine of returns, and earnings revisions were coming fast and furious.
2. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index’s best month since 2000
Normally, dot-com-adjacent superlatives are a red flag. But in this case — based on how the index is hanging in there after an epic winning streak — it can be viewed as a sign of strength.
That streak ended up capping out at 18 days, the longest-ever for the index. During the period, the SOX got a major lift from strong earnings (and earnings forecasts) from chipmakers like TSMC, ASML, and Intel. Signs are positive right now that demand is staying strong for these crucial components of the AI trade.
3. Oil falls 24% before rallying to flat for the month
If you pull up a monthly return history for Brent crude, you’ll see an essentially unchanged return for April to date. That’s just about the most misleading stat I can imagine.
Underneath the surface, crude saw a 24% monthly decline through April 17. From there, it’s been a straight shot upward. Through Wednesday’s settlement, Brent was up eight straight days, erasing the April loss in no time.
The resurgence of oil back to Iran-war highs sends one major signal: investors are tired of vague promises of peace talks. They want progress, and they’re tired of waiting for it.
