Arsenal were strong favourites for the Premier League title, but recent results have jeopardised things. Manchester City have a chance once again.
Premier League Title Odds
| Premier League Winner | Odds | Implied % Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | -161 | 61.9 |
| Manchester City | +125 | 44.4 |
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
Latest Premier League odds & market movers
- Arsenal lead the way, but a recent dip in form has raised concerns
- The Gunners have struggled under Mikel Arteta
- Manchester City have a game in hand and are closing the gap
- April is Pep Guardiola’s most effective month in the Premier League
Team-by-team analysis: Top contenders for the English Premier League
Arsenal
Arsenal have let a strong position slip at the top of the table, and tension is rising at the Emirates. Mikel Arteta’s men still boast the league’s lowest expected goals against (23.31) – highlighting their resilience. However, results have dropped off recently. A lack of creativity from open play continues to undermine their ability to control matches and secure crucial wins.
- Current odds: 1.66
- Key argument FOR: They’re top of the table and currently six points clear.
- Key argument AGAINST: Losing three of the last four is a big mental blow.
- Our opinion: They may have had a tough time of things recently, but we still think Arsenal will see it through this season. A point at the Etihad would be significant, and they’re certainly capable of achieving that.
Manchester City
Manchester City are hitting form at exactly the right time. They’re six points behind the Gunners at this point, but they still have a game in hand. City have won their last three across all competitions. They’ve scored nine goals without conceding, so confidence will be high.
- Current odds: 2.20
- Key argument FOR: City are in great form, have excellent depth and usually finish very strongly.
- Key argument AGAINST: They’re still playing catch-up, and games in hand aren’t points in hand.
- Our opinion: We do think the Cityzens will push this all the way and that the title may not be decided until the final day. Ultimately, however, we believe they’ll fall just short of what would be a remarkable comeback.
Our prediction for the 2025–26 EPL
A huge week awaits Arsenal, with Sporting Clube de Portugal on Wednesday and Manchester City on Sunday. Three defeats in their last four have knocked momentum for the silverware-chasing Gunners, but they’re still clinging on. The next two games could be potentially season-defining.
Arsenal have not won any of their last ten league games at the Etihad, losing seven, and that’s a concern. It adds a psychological edge ahead of another decisive clash, with the visitors clearly stumbling.
Their current points tally raises concerns about their ability to see it through. Meanwhile, only two teams in the last 22 seasons have had fewer points (70) after 32 games and secured the title. Manchester United and Leicester City both had 69 in 2010/11 and 2015/16, respectively.
Arsenal do, however, still have more points at this stage than in their title-winning campaigns of 1997/98 (66) and 2001/02 (69 points). There’s also no doubt they would prefer to be the team being chased as they approach the 2025/26 run-in. It is worth noting, however, that injuries to key players could limit their ability to maintain consistency during their final push.
On a positive note, Viktor Gyokeres appears to be peaking at the right moment. His recent scoring form and growing confidence have provided a much-needed attacking boost. The Swede is going to have a huge say in how things play out over the next month or so.
Meanwhile, while Arsenal’s rivals juggle Champions League commitments, Manchester City are focused on the FA Cup. A game against Southampton is on the horizon. A victory would add another fixture to their schedule. The final is set for 16 May.
Fixture congestion is unlikely to trouble the Cityzens. They’ve got excellent squad depth and usually finish the season strongly. They’ll be confident of chasing down the current table-toppers.
While April is historically Arteta’s worst month, with a 44% win percentage, it happens to be Guardiola’s best. He’s won 30 of 38 in this period since arriving in the Premier League. That’s obviously a huge concern for the Gunners.
City have scored one more goal than their counterparts so far, but they have also conceded four more. Arsenal’s goal difference is only marginally better, however, and it does not translate into an extra point at this stage. If results go their way in the next two games, Guardiola’s side could well be leading the way.
It also helps that Erling Haaland is leading the line. The 2025/26 campaign has been inconsistent for him. However, he is still the division’s top scorer, with 22 league goals and 33 in all competitions.
The Norwegian netted 19 times in his opening 17 games, but he has managed only three in 13 since. Guardiola will take encouragement from the fact his side are not overly reliant on the 25-year-old alone. Still, you’d expect him to grab a few more before the campaign is over.
How to read Premier League winner odds
If you are new to sports betting, looking at Premier League winner odds can feel like trying to solve a complex puzzle. This section breaks down everything you need to know about betting on the Premier League outright market, how odds formats work, and when to place your wagers.
What are outright / futures odds?
When you look at Premier League winner odds, you are looking at an outright market.
- Definition: Outright bets involve wagering on the overall winner of the league after all 38 matches have been played, rather than the result of a single game.
- Timing: You can place an outright bet before the season kicks off in August, or at any point during the season (even now, as we approach the final “run-in” in April).
- Duration: Unlike match betting—where your bet is settled in 90 minutes—an outright bet stays active as long as your chosen team is mathematically capable of winning the title. If they lift the trophy in May, your bet wins.
How to read the three odds formats
Depending on your sportsbook, odds are displayed in three main ways. They all represent the same potential payout. Let’s use Arsenal (the current favourites) as our example.
- Decimal (1.15) — Popular Internationally: This represents the total return for every unit wagered, including your stake.
- Example: If you bet $10 on Arsenal at 1.15, your total return is $11.50 ($1.50 profit + $10 stake).
- Fractional (1/7) — Popular in the UK: This shows your potential profit relative to your stake (Profit / Stake).
- Example: At 1/7, for every $7 you bet, you win $1 in profit. A $7 bet returns $8 total.
- American / Moneyline (-650) — Popular in the US: A minus sign (-) indicates how much you must bet to make $100 profit.
- Example: -650 means you must wager $650 to win $100 in profit. (Conversely, a plus sign like +550 for Man City means a $100 bet yields $550 profit).
Why do odds change?
The Premier League market is highly volatile and reacts to weekly events:
- Match Results: If Arsenal wins while Man City drops points, Arsenal’s odds will “shorten” (lower payout), while City’s will “lengthen” (higher payout).
- The “Run-In” Schedule: Odds shift based on fixture difficulty. If a contender has an “easy” remaining schedule on paper, their odds will be lower than a team facing three “Big Six” opponents in a row.
- Injuries & Suspensions: If a critical player like Erling Haaland or Martin Ødegaard is sidelined, that team’s odds will immediately lengthen.
- Transfer Windows: Significant January signings (like a new star striker) can cause a team’s title odds to crash mid-season.
Early vs. late betting — When should you place your bet?
- Betting Early (August/September): This offers the highest potential rewards. In August 2025, you might have found Liverpool at +180; by April, those odds look very different. You get “value” before the season’s narrative is written, but you face the highest risk of injuries or poor form.
- Betting Late (March/April): You have more certainty. You know the injury lists, the points gap, and the momentum of each squad. However, the payouts are significantly smaller because the “market” has already figured out who the true contenders are.
Disclaimer: Betting involves financial risk. Please gamble responsibly and only wager what you can afford to lose. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, please seek help through your local or national responsible gambling organizations.
