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Geometric shapes and colors convey the slowdown in China’s exports as the Iran war disrupts global trade flows.Washington TodayChina’s exports grew 2.5% in March, a significant slowdown from the previous two months as uncertainties rose from the Iran war and its impact on energy prices and global demand. Imports last month surged 27.8%, up from the 19.8% year-on-year increase in the first two months of the year.
Why it matters
China’s exports have been a key driver of its economic growth, with a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus in 2025. The slowdown in exports could weigh on China’s overall economic expansion this year as the prolonged Iran war affects global demand and supply chains.
The details
The March export data released by China’s customs agency missed analysts’ estimates and was sharply down from the 21.8% export growth recorded for January and February. Technology-related exports, including a jump in shipments of semiconductors from China on the global artificial intelligence boom, had powered its robust exports in early 2026, but economists say impacts from the prolonged Iran war could affect overall global demand for Chinese exports this year.
- China’s exports grew 2.5% in March 2026 from a year ago.
- China’s exports grew 21.8% in January and February 2026.
What they’re saying
“China’s exports have decelerated as the Iran war starts to affect global demand and supply chains.”
— Gary Ng, Senior economist for Asia Pacific
“The risks will ‘arise from a persistent global slowdown in overall demand if the conflict lasts longer than currently expected.’”
— Helen Qiao, Economist
What’s next
Analysts are closely watching U.S. President Donald Trump’s planned visit to Beijing in May to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping following a delay due to the Iran war.
The takeaway
China’s exports, a key driver of its economic growth, have slowed significantly due to the uncertainties caused by the prolonged Iran war and its impact on global demand and supply chains. This could weigh on China’s overall economic expansion this year as the country faces a property sector slump and seeks to maintain its growth targets.
