Champions League Quarterfinal Betting Preview

If last month’s Champions League round of 16 lacked drama — every matchup was decided by two goals or more — then it more than made up for it in goals. A record-breaking 68 were scored, as the likes of Manchester City, Chelsea, and Bayer Leverkusen crashed out of the competition.

With seven European giants and one plucky underdog remaining, the four quarterfinal ties are likely to be far closer. We will see Arsenal continue its fight for a potential historic treble, two heavyweights fight it out in the most-played match this competition has seen, and a shot at revenge for both Barcelona and Liverpool.

There are 33 Champions League titles between these eight teams. Here’s who is most likely to go one step closer to claiming the 34th. This is our Champions League Quarterfinal Betting Preview.

Sporting CP (+400 to advance to the semifinal) vs Arsenal (-600)
It’s fair to say that Sporting is very much the outlier in the last eight of this season’s Champions League. The Portuguese side has not made the quarterfinals for 42 years, and has never progressed beyond this point.

And yet, it has all clicked for Rui Borges’ team this season, with impressive late winners against Paris Saint-Germain and Athletic Club ensuring qualification directly to the round of 16. Luis Suárez (not that one!) is the player to watch, and it was the Colombian’s penalty which got the Leões back on level terms in the last round, as they came back from 3-0 down to beat fan favorite Bodø/Glimt.

Despite that impressive run, it would be a huge shock to see Sporting in the semifinals. Arsenal has won nine out of its 10 Champions League games this season, drawing the other, and is also riding high at the top of the Premier League. The Gunners have never won Europe’s premier club cup competition, but this is as good a chance as any.

Mikel Arteta’s style may not be the most entertaining, but — notwithstanding the recent Carabao Cup final defeat to Manchester City — it’s getting results. Expect very little to happen in the first leg in Lisbon, followed by a comfortable win for Arsenal in London.

Real Madrid (+162 to advance to the semifinal) vs Bayern München (-225)
If Sporting vs Arsenal is the most one-sided matchup of the four, then Real Madrid vs Bayern München is arguably the hardest to call. Having won the Champions League more than twice as many times as any other club, Madrid needs no introduction. Kylian Mbappé is the top scorer in the competition with 13 goals, Vinícius Júnior has come alive again in the knockout stages, and Federico Valverde continues to prove he can do just about anything on a soccer field. 

Disappointing defeats to Liverpool, Manchester City and Benfica left Los Blancos needing to come through the playoff, but is it really a surprise to see Real Madrid turn it on when it really matters?

Eyebrows were raised when Vincent Kompany, fresh off the back of being relegated with Burnley, was appointed manager of Bayern. Fast forward two years and that decision now looks inspired. While it is no surprise to see the Bavarian side running away with the Bundesliga again, it has been a while since Bayern was so feared on the European stage.

While Kompany deserves huge credit for that, we cannot ignore the influence of Harry Kane. Only Mbappé has more Champions League goals this season, and the English striker has scored a remarkable 48 in 40 games across all competitions In a matchup with such fine margins, small advantages — like the fact Bayern will play the second leg at home — could prove decisive.

Barcelona (-275 to advance to the semifinal) vs Atlético Madrid (+200)
This all-Spanish matchup looks easy to call on paper — Barcelona is three places and 19 points better off than Atlético in LaLiga, having beaten the Madrid side 3-1 the last time the two faced off in the league. 

In Lamine Yamal, Raphinha, and Robert Lewandowski, Barça has its best front three since the days of Lionel Messi, Luis Suárez and Neymar — epitomized when they scored five of the seven goals in last month’s demolition of Newcastle.

In reality, though, this could be far closer than it appears at first glance. Atleti is no longer the defensive powerhouse it used to be but, at the other end, Ademola Lookman has added some dynamism to an attack which already had Julián Alvarez and Antoine Griezmann. Indeed, the Nigerian was instrumental as Diego Simeone’s side beat Barcelona 4-0 in February on the way to a 4-3 aggregate victory in the Copa Del Rey.

Add to that the fact that Raphinha will likely miss both legs of this clash with a hamstring injury — and the slight advantage Atleti has as the home team in the second leg — and although a Barça win is still the most likely outcome, it is far from a foregone conclusion.

Liverpool (+150 to advance to the semifinal) vs Paris Saint-Germain (-200)
When Liverpool met Paris Saint-Germain just over a year ago in the round of 16 stage, Arne Slot’s side was on its way to a 20th league title and Les Parisiens had endured a difficult first half of the season.

How times change…

PSG won that matchup on penalties, went on to claim its first ever Champions League title, and is once again atop Ligue 1. Liverpool, on the other hand, is in real danger of failing to even qualify for next year’s competition due to a terrible Premier League season. Mohamed Salah is leaving in the summer, Slot may follow him out the exit door, and the likes of Virgil van Dijk and Alisson are beginning to show their cracks.

Reds fans will take encouragement from the fact that the team’s European form is much better than what it has managed domestically, and from the expectation that record signing Alexander Isak should be healthy enough to return after 10 weeks out with a broken leg.

Even so, the odds are firmly stacked against Liverpool — PSG is European champion and just beat Chelsea 8-2. With Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Désiré Doué, and Bradley Barcola backing up Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembélé, Liverpool supporters will be hoping this one doesn’t get equally ugly.

(All odds courtesy of Fanatics Sportsbook at time of publication.)

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