By Stephanie Yang, CNN

Soldiers march along a street during the Han Kuang military exercise in Taoyuan, Taiwan.
Photo: I-Hwa Cheng/Bloomberg/Getty Images

In the face of growing Chinese military aggression, Taiwan has increased defence spending, extended mandatory conscription and revamped its combat exercises, signaling its determination to fight off a potential invasion.

Some, like 51-year-old Nelson Yeh, have been making different plans.

Three years ago, Yeh decided to open a bank account in Singapore and move one-fifth of his wealth overseas. Then he applied for citizenship in Turkey, and nine months later, obtained secondary passports for himself and his wife.

If Taiwan came under attack, he reasoned, he would be able to access emergency funds and use his Turkish papers to travel freely.

“The likelihood of this is low, but if it does happen, then the losses would be huge, so I feel like I should have a plan B,” said Yeh, who works in finance in Taipei.

Now, with the US engaged in a spiraling conflict in the Middle East, Yeh said global uncertainty over the fallout had further undermined his faith in the current world order.

“We are seeing the unilateral world start to crumble and no one great power can dictate the situation,” he said.

Taiwan has grappled for decades with the possibility of military conflict with China, but Beijing, under leader Xi Jinping, has more adamantly pressed its claim of sovereignty over the self-ruled island, launching live-fire drills and simulated blockades to deter “separatist forces”.

In preparation, some Taiwanese have started learning skills like first aid and marksmanship, while civil defence organisations have provided emergency response training. At the same time, immigration consultants said the political uncertainty had spurred more inquiries about moving overseas.

“Basically, my thinking is that, if I go abroad, I need money and a passport,” Yeh said. “Anything else beyond that is outside of my control.”

‘Tomorrow Taiwan’

Yeh said he got the idea to hold cash overseas from friends in Hong Kong, where tens of thousands of locals had voted with their feet and left the finance hub during a widespread national security crackdown.

Seeing China’s Communist Party exert greater control over the former British colony, he worried that Taiwan may someday face the same fate. During Hong Kong’s pro-democracy protests in 2019, he often heard the slogan ‘Today Hong Kong. tomorrow Taiwan’.

A variation on the refrain ‘Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow’, returned after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, emphasised the island’s vulnerability to a similar attack by China.

There’s little indication that China intends imminent military action. While Xi has threatened to take Taiwan by force if necessary, such a step could prompt US retaliation and lead to a costly conflict that would devastate global trade.

Nonetheless, Taiwan President Lai Ching-te has proposed a US$40 billion (NZ$70b) bill that includes one of the biggest arms deals ever between the US and Taiwan. As the proposal has encountered local political opposition and protests from Beijing, US senators visited Taiwan this week to encourage its legislators to reach an agreement.

Pessimism over domestic and international politics is one reason why more Taiwanese people are purchasing property in Thailand, said Edward Lai, a Taiwanese real estate agent working in Bangkok. He said his company had been on a hiring spree to keep up with the influx of inquiries, 70 percent of which are from Taiwanese worried about geopolitics, he estimated.

“Nowadays, my friends in Taiwan often tell me that they have a very strong feeling that they are about to lose their country,” he said.

Kuo, a 67-year-old retiree, started buying property in Cambodia a decade ago, initially as an investment, then as a precaution in case of conflict with China. He requested to use only his last name to speak candidly about his political beliefs, which he fears could draw backlash.

Kuo believed the question of unification would inevitably be resolved during Xi’s tenure, but was concerned Xi would opt for a more aggressive approach, such as a blockade or invasion, as relations between Beijing and Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party deteriorated.

While he was the only person in his family with a Cambodian passport, he hoped others could obtain temporary visas if they fled or apply for passports to other countries in advance.

“As long as you can get out, you have time to observe the situation and await the outcome,” he said. “No matter who wins or loses, if the winner has good intentions toward us, we will slowly find the opportunity to return.”

Fight or flee?

Watching the Russia-Ukraine conflict, defence analysts said one of the biggest takeaways for Taiwan was the importance of civil resistance to the island’s security.

“It’s not just a domestic issue, it also carries international consequences,” said Charles Wu, an assistant professor of political science at the University of South Alabama.

“If China now sees that Taiwanese people are basically giving up their will to fight, then maybe an invasion is unnecessary. Maybe they could buy it out.”

Wu, who specialises in how public opinion affects military operations, said the perceived willingness of Taiwanese people to fight or flee could greatly influence Chinese and US policy towards Taiwan.

“It’s important that, when I go home to my colleagues in the Senate, that I’m able to say to them they’re carrying their weight,” Senator John Curtis, one of the officials who came to Taiwan to show support for increased defence spending, told reporters in Taipei.

“They’re picking up their end of the stick and they’re doing their part, not overly dependent on us in the United States.”

Determining what percentage of the population would stay and fight is complicated. There is little comprehensive data on the number of people obtaining secondary passports or opening bank accounts overseas.

Opinions can also vary widely based on polling methods, as well as people’s confidence in Taiwan’s own defence capabilities or military support from the US.

The US has a vested interest in Taiwan’s security, as a geographically strategic and democratically aligned partner in countering China’s rise. Under US legislation, Washington is obligated to sell Taiwan weapons for self-defence, but in line with longstanding US policy, President Donald Trump has declined to say whether he would send military assistance, if China attacked.

Trump and Xi are expected to discuss Taiwan, when Trump visits Beijing in May.

An analysis led by Wu showed that the proportion of people who said they were willing to defend Taiwan had ranged between 15-80 percent since 2017.

In a 2025 survey funded by Duke University, which left the question more open-ended, 37 percent said they would “go with the flow”, 7 percent said they would support the government’s decision, 11 percent said they would flee Taiwan, and 20 percent said they would resist or join the military.

In addition to extending mandatory military service from four months to one year, the Taiwanese government has made efforts to ready the broader population for conflict. In 2024, Taiwan created a committee to enhance civil defence, and has begun issuing official guides and holding drills on what to do in disaster scenarios.

Contingency plans

While there were currently no sign of a significant exodus, consultants said Taiwanese sought a sense of security.

When Metropolitan Immigration Consulting Group opened in Taiwan two decades ago, clients mostly wanted to emigrate to English-speaking countries, general manager Kenny Chiang said.

In the past five years, a growing number had opted for citizenship by investment from places including St. Lucia, Vanuatu and the United Arab Emirates.

“Before, immigration meant getting a green card from the US or a Maple Leaf card from Canada,” said Chiang. “Now everyone’s goal with immigration is to distribute risk, distribute assets and diversify identification.”

However, Mark Lin, manager at another immigration consultancy Luby, said that, while inquiries had doubled over the past two years on geopolitical worries, leaving during a conflict wouldn’t be easy.

“People want to get a quick passport, in case something happens, but if something were to happen, you can’t even get on a plane and move out, right?” Lin said. “You have to have some sort of military assistance.”

That concern has some Taiwanese considering Malaysia as a back-up, said Jessica Chang, an education consultant who helps students and their families research friendly visa policies.

“If there’s war, the first place that will be bombed will be the airport, right, but Malaysia is somewhere that you can just take boats,” she said.

Other options she’s discussed with clients are Portugal and Malta. Still, most of her students are set on attending US universities – as long as there’s a good chance of staying after graduation.

Kathy Chen, a 33-year-old Taiwanese data scientist, obtained her master’s degree from the University of Southern California five years ago and has been looking for opportunities to emigrate ever since.

While she doesn’t believe war will happen soon, the prospect of a Chinese takeover has strengthened her resolve. Last year, she relocated to San Francisco with her husband, who is also Taiwanese and whose company sponsored his work visa.

“I just want to avoid any risk of being a Chinese person,” said Chen, who applied for a green card this year. “That would be the worst case for me.”

– CNN