Traditional American allies in Europe – France, Spain, Italy – aren’t just declining to join military operations against Iran. In recent days, they have blocked the use of bases and airspace by U.S. military assets in the campaign.

Not since the run-up to the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq has there been such a chasm between Washington and some of its most important NATO partners. President Donald Trump, not known as a fan of the alliance, has responded by hinting the U.S. may not fulfill its NATO treaty obligations or may even pull out entirely.

Transatlantic relations, already under strain from Trump’s tariffs, are in crisis. The big winners appear to be Russia and China, which surely would not hate to see a weakening – or worse – of the alliances that have undergirded America’s global influence for nearly eight decades.

In 2003, the White House referred to countries supportive of the invasion of Iraq as “the coalition of the willing” in an effort to rebut accusations that Washington was going it alone. Notably absent were countries like France and Germany.

In 2026, we might repurpose that expression and note the existence of a coalition of the unwilling.

The most interesting case study may be Italy. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is a Trump ally who recently suffered a setback when voters rejected a judicial overhaul in a March 22 referendum that effectively doubled as a test of her political strength.

Now, Italy has denied some U.S. military planes access to an airbase in Sicily. Officially, the reason is that the U.S. only asked for permission when the planes were already on their way, which meant there was not enough time for Meloni’s government to get parliamentary approval.

But there are other signs she seeks to put a little distance between herself and Trump.

“This story of her closeness to Trump, used to delegitimize the government, I don’t know if it’s more ridiculous or more specious, bordering on insulting,” Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto said Monday. “Trump is the president of a nation, elected by an overwhelming majority, and he goes his own way without listening to anyone but himself. We go our own way without subservience.”

On Tuesday, Trump railed on social media against European nations not backing the U.S. moves in Iran, saying in one social media post, “The U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us.” Separately, Trump had harsh words for France: “France wouldn’t let planes headed to Israel, loaded up with military supplies, fly over French territory. France has been VERY UNHELPFUL…The U.S.A. will REMEMBER!!! ”

Another way to think about this: Trump’s controversial policies (chiefly tariffs) and rhetoric (notably about seizing Canada and Greenland) have made it more politically risky for popularly elected world leaders to cooperate with the United States. That’s especially true in a war of choice seemingly launched without consultations with key allies.

The United States is locked in a global economic, diplomatic and military rivalry with China. Russia has been working to destabilize Europe – one of America’s largest trading and investment partners.

If allies who have historically stood alongside the U.S. against Chinese and Russian advances tilt away from Washington, then we could see a decline in American influence to the benefit of Beijing.

And, of course, there are other risks to a rocky transatlantic relationship. Deepening economic conflict between the U.S. and what traditionally have been its closest friends on the world stage could affect American prosperity – shrinking opportunities to sell U.S. products and attract foreign investment that generates jobs at home.

Beijing, meanwhile, is eager to secure world markets for its products and influence for its world view. Trump heads to China in May for a visit that will be closely watched for any signs of a trade war truce.