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The modelled fair value for Pinnacle West Capital has inched from US$102.00 to US$102.21 per share, a small move that still attracts attention when analysts are tightening their assumptions. Recent research updates describe a mix of cautious and constructive views, with price targets in the low US$100s reflecting different opinions on regulatory execution, earnings quality, and where the stock sits within the utilities group. As you read on, you will see how these shifting targets fit into a broader narrative and what to watch to keep up with future changes.
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BMO Capital lifted its target to US$107 from US$98 after Q4 results, highlighting the potential for Pinnacle West Capital to become a core utility holding if regulatory execution stays on track.
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Citi took its target to US$109 from US$100, while Mizuho moved to US$103 from US$91, signaling interest around current valuation levels even with Neutral ratings.
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Barclays increased its target to US$97 from US$90 and Morgan Stanley to US$96 from US$89, adding to a cluster of targets in the mid to high US$90s and low US$100s.
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BMO Capital, despite the higher target, kept a Market Perform rating and put clear emphasis on regulatory execution as the key risk for the rest of the year.
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TD Cowen raised its target to US$100 from US$97 but maintained a Hold rating and adjusted its model with lower trending estimates, pointing to questions around earnings quality and near term growth.
Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there’s more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives!
We’ve flagged 2 risks for Pinnacle West Capital. See which could impact your investment.
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Pinnacle West Capital issued consolidated earnings guidance for 2026, with an estimated range of $4.55 to $4.75 per diluted share on a weather normalized basis.
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The 2026 guidance is presented on a consolidated basis, providing a single earnings range to track across the entire business rather than separate targets by segment.
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The company described the 2026 outlook as a continuation of its existing guidance, keeping expectations centered on the same $4.55 to $4.75 per diluted share range.
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Modelled fair value is US$102.21 per share, compared with US$102.00 previously, a move of about 0.2%.
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Long term revenue growth input is 5.07%, compared with 5.06% previously.
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Net profit margin assumption is 12.97%, compared with 12.94% previously.
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Future P/E multiple is 19.47x, compared with 19.48x previously.
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Discount rate assumption is 6.98%, effectively unchanged.
Narratives connect a company’s real world story to a financial forecast and fair value so you can see how new information feeds into the bigger picture. They update as fresh research, guidance, and risk factors come through, so the story never goes stale.
Head over to the Simply Wall St Community and follow the Narrative on Pinnacle West Capital to stay up to date on:
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How Arizona’s population and economic growth, plus large commercial and industrial load such as data centers, feed into Pinnacle West Capital’s long term demand outlook.
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The scale of planned grid, transmission, and generation investments, along with proposed regulatory modernization that is aimed at improving cost recovery and reducing regulatory lag.
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Key risks around fossil fuel reliance, potential overbuilding if the uncommitted load queue does not materialize, extreme weather costs, and the pace of renewable adoption.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include PNW.
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