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Essent Group’s model fair value has been adjusted slightly, with the price target moving from US$68.31 to US$68.06 per share. This small shift sits alongside Street research that shows some analysts lifting targets into the high US$60s and up to US$70, while others trim expectations toward US$63 to US$65, reflecting a more balanced and cautious debate on valuation. Read on to see what is driving these different views and how you can track the evolving narrative around Essent Group.
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BofA lifted its price target on Essent Group to US$68 from US$66, signaling confidence that the stock can support a higher valuation even after Q4 results that came in below its forecast.
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Goldman Sachs raised its target to US$70 from US$67 and highlighted what it sees as multi year fundamental improvement in financials, with credit risk framed as the main variable to watch.
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JPMorgan nudged its target up to US$66 from US$65 and kept a Neutral stance, suggesting Essent fits into a more defensive posture within consumer finance.
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Barclays cut its target twice, most recently to US$63 from US$65, and maintains an Equal Weight rating, which points to more guarded expectations for upside.
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UBS also moved its target down to US$63 from US$65 and kept a Neutral rating, reinforcing a view that Essent’s valuation may already reflect a fair portion of its current execution and growth profile.
Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there’s more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives!
We’ve flagged 1 risk for Essent Group. See which could impact your investment.
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Essent Group’s board declared a quarterly cash dividend of US$0.35 per common share, payable on March 23, 2026, to shareholders of record as of March 13, 2026.
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From October 1, 2025 to January 31, 2026, the company repurchased 2,759,362 shares, or 2.83% of its shares, for US$169.63m under the buyback announced on February 14, 2025.
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Total repurchases under the February 14, 2025 authorization reached 7,971,812 shares, or 7.97% of shares, for US$473.14m by January 31, 2026.
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From November 1, 2025 to January 31, 2026, the company reported no share repurchases and no cash spent under the separate buyback program announced on November 7, 2025.
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The estimated fair value moved slightly lower from US$68.31 to US$68.06 per share.
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The revenue growth assumption shifted from 79.60% to 144.02%.
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The net profit margin assumption moved from 54.24% to 52.55%.
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The assumed future P/E multiple changed from 9.17x to 9.25x.
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The discount rate used in the model was adjusted from 7.36% to 7.34%.
Narratives connect a company’s business story to a financial forecast and fair value, so you can see how key assumptions fit together. They automatically refresh when new data or research comes in, keeping the thesis current.
Head over to the Simply Wall St Community and follow the Narrative on Essent Group to stay up to date on:
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How trends in US homeownership and Essent’s use of digital tools and analytics support demand for mortgage insurance and pricing precision.
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The role of EssentEDGE, reinsurance through Essent Re, and fee based credit risk services in broadening revenue beyond traditional mortgage insurance.
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Key threats such as housing affordability pressures, regulatory changes affecting Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, new credit models and fintech competition, and shifts in GSE risk transfer structures.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include ESNT.
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