THE SEMI FINAL HURDLE

It’s Geopolitics World Cup playoff day, dear reader, and Gibraltar are playing Latvia in a winner-takes-all clash. Sadly, for football romantics, that game is the first leg of a Nations League promotion/relegation playoff. Uefa’s scheduling feels a bit cruel, like making some poor flunky do the graveyard shift while Bacchanalia Revisited takes place on the floor above. And what a party it’s going to be. Sure, the process of qualifying has become so convoluted that even Bobby Seagull doesn’t fully understand it, but now we’ve reached the stage where everything is terrifyingly simple. There are no second chances any more, and the only guarantee is of thrills, spills and bellyaches. Sixteen European teams are involved in Thursday’s semi-finals; by Tuesday night, four will be on their way to the GWC and 12 will be wondering whether they can still legitimately cherish the memories they made en route to the playoffs.

Northern Ireland drew the barely perceptible straw – Gennaro Gattuso’s Italy in Bergamo – and need their most famous away victory since they won in West Germany in 1983. Their best chance is probably to play on Italian nerves. Almost unbelievably – Football Daily even broke the habit of a lifetime by double checking something, even though we know it’s true – Italy have not qualified for a World Cup finals since 2014. The last time they failed to qualify before that, in 1958, they were knocked out by … Northern Ireland. What could it all mean? Eff all, obviously, that was 68 years ago.

The winners of that game face a playoff final away to either Wales or Bosnia and Herzegovina, who meet in Cardiff. Since succeeding Robert Page in 2024, Craig Bellamy has proved you should never judge a man by his golf swing. Bellamy has emerged as one of the most intriguing, original managers in British football, and his intrepid team would enrich this summer’s tournament. Even Aaron Ramsey, who has been phased out of the squad by Bellamy, said he “can’t speak highly enough of him”. Wales have home advantage and a Fifa ranking (35) that is less than half Bosnia and Herzegovina’s (71). But B&H have the venerable Edin Dzeko, 72, up front. (That’s international goals scored, not age.) And Wales suffered an agonising Euro 2024 playoff defeat on penalties to Poland on the same ground two years ago.

“We have two games to keep this thing marching,” bellowed Bellamy. “What do you think’s happening tomorrow? We’re going all out, we ain’t sitting back. This is us, this is who I am, this is who my coaching staff and players are. If it fails, I can sleep. Do you know why I’m so calm? Because we’re such a good team. The rest will take care of itself.” The Republic of Ireland, who reached the playoffs thanks to Troy Parrott’s spine-tingling winner in Hungary, have a tough tie against the Czech Republic in Prague. Whoever triumphs will play Denmark or North Macedonia at home on Tuesday.

A paragraph too for Graham Potter’s Sweden, who finished bottom of their group (P6 W0 D2 L4) but were parachuted into the playoffs because, so Bobby Seagull tells us, they had a good Nations League record. They play Ukraine in Valencia, with the victor hosting Poland or Albania next week. If Sweden win both ties on penalties, we think they’ll become the first team – apart from the hosts and reigning champions – to qualify for a World Cup without winning a single match since Hungary in 1954. And look what they achieved.

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Join Scott Murray from 7.45pm GMT for hot GWC playoff updates from Italy 2-1 Northern Ireland, while Taha Hashim will be on deck for the rest of the evening’s action on our clockwatch.

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QUOTE OF THE DAY

“There was a game last season where I got my period and I tried to push through. I was starting that game, but walking out, I couldn’t stand up straight, so I took a lot of pain medication. But at half-time, I had to be subbed off because of the pain. That was the moment where I was like: ‘I need to do something about it’” – the Everton and Netherlands striker Katja Snoeijs opens up on being diagnosed with endometriosis, a condition which which affects one in 10 women.

I’m so saddened by the news of John Toshack’s dementia diagnosis, the fate of too many from his era. He was my first footballing idol, a big handsome hero of the team I knew and loved as long as I’d lived. I would save a sweet for home-game Saturdays and ask my dad to pass it to him at half-time (of course a Kop season ticket didn’t preclude that!), and Dad always said Tosh had thanked me. It’s good to know he has detailed memories of his many days of glory, and I hope life is kind to him in those remaining” – Kathryn Nolan.

Riccardo Calafiori complains that Italy gaffer Gennaro Gattuso calls him more often than his mum does (Wednesday’s News, Bits and Bobs, full email edition). What’s the problem? I’d be ecstatic if Gattuso called me more than my mother. It’d be terrific to talk about football with a World Cup, Big Cup and Serie A winner. My mother tends to focus more on weekend plans, the noise level in restaurants, and how often my kids do or don’t call her. No offence Mum, but I’d rather talk tactics than family stuff” – Mike Wilner.

If you have any, please send letters to the.boss@theguardian.com. Today’s prizeless letter o’ the day is … Kathryn Nolan. Terms and conditions for our competitions, when we run them, are here.

MOVING THE GOALPOSTS

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