Hong Kong will experience between four and seven typhoons from June to October this year, according to the city’s forecaster – a figure that is fewer than half of last year’s record-breaking 14 tropical typhoons.

The Hong Kong Observatory said on Monday the city would be hotter than average this year under the influence of the warming El Nino weather phenomenon.

Director Chan Pak-wai said the tropical cyclone season in Hong Kong was expected to start in June or later and cease in October or before this year.

“There are likely to be about four to seven tropical cyclones coming within 500km [310 miles] of Hong Kong during the year, which is near normal,” he said.

Chan said the possibility of developing into an El Nino event in the second half of this year increases the likelihood of extreme heat across many regions and in the ocean.

“The annual mean temperature in Hong Kong is expected to be above normal this year with a high chance of reaching the warmest top 10 on record,” he said.