Is Premier League still on for fifth Champions League spot?

It has been a terrible week for the Premier League in the Champions League, with four of its six teams eliminated in the last 16.

Could this have an impact on fifth place getting a place in the competition again next season?

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The two nations which perform best across the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League will be handed European Performance Spots (EPS) by Uefa.

That could mean an extra spot for the Premier League, with fifth promoted from the Europa League to a ticket to the Champions League. Newcastle benefited this way last season.

After a run of poor results, will an English club get that reward again?

What does the table look like?

ENGLAND

Even though four teams have been knocked out this week, it is all but certain that the Premier League will get an extra place.

England (23.847) already have a coefficient score pretty much the same as last season’s second-placed country (Spain, 23.892).

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Nothing should be completely taken for granted, as England seemed destined to get an EPS slot in 2023-24 only to suffer a terrible set of results in the quarter-finals.

But it is going to take another very bad night on Thursday for there to be any real jeopardy.

It also helps that Bayern Munich will face Real Madrid in the quarter-finals, meaning one of England’s closest rivals will lose a team. And Barcelona must play Atletico Madrid, too.

As a picture of how far England are ahead, German and Spanish sides are effectively 18 victories behind. And Serie A can no longer catch the Premier League.

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SPAIN

The Spanish league is in second place and now has more teams left in Europe (six) than any other league.

It will be a close battle as each win is worth less to the coefficient than for Germany.

The Champions League meeting between Bayern and Real Madrid could prove crucial in the race.

Spain will also be hit by their teams meeting each other.

Atletico and Barcelona will meet in the Champions League quarter-finals.

In the Europa League, Celta Vigo and Real Betis are on a collision course in the semi-finals.

GERMANY

The Bundesliga has only Bayern left active in the Champions League, and it will need a strong turnaround of results on Thursday.

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Of the three German teams in action in the Europa League and Conference League, not one goes into their second leg with a lead. They all need positive results to be able to challenge Spain.

PORTUGAL

It seemed like Portugal’s chances of making the top two were effectively over when Santa Clara were knocked out of the Conference League in the qualifying rounds.

But three of their remaining four teams are still active.

However, to be in contention for second all are going to have to go very deep.

ITALY

Serie A has lost four of its seven teams and now only has a slim chance of making second place.

Bologna and Roma face each other in the Europa League last 16, so another team will go out.

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At least Fiorentina won in the Conference League.

FRANCE

It has been a disappointing season for Ligue 1 teams, starting with Nice’s failure to make it through Champions League qualifying.

It did not get much better from there for Nice, as they were then eliminated from the Europa League.

France do have four teams still active but seem unlikely to bridge the gap.

POLAND

It will come as a surprise to many to find Poland so high up in the table, and they were in the top two for a while. But Poland no longer have a realistic chance.

All four of the country’s teams have been playing in the Conference League, while more than a third of their coefficient points were picked up in the qualifying rounds.

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It would need both of their teams to win every remaining game.

No other country has a mathematical chance of the top two.

How do European Performance Spots work?

To work out who are the successful nations, Uefa takes into consideration the overall performance of clubs in the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League.

It creates an average by taking the total coefficient score and dividing it by the number of clubs each league has in European competition.

So let’s say the Premier League has a total score of 185. Divide that by nine clubs and you get an average of 20.56.

The top two leagues in the table get an extra place in the Champions League.

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Each win – regardless of the competition – is worth two coefficient points, with a draw worth one.

The key differential is in bonus points awarded based on clubs’ finishing positions in the league phase and knockout rounds, as these are much higher in the Champions League.

By way of an example, the teams that finish 25th-36th in the Champions League got six bonus points – even though they were eliminated.

Yet the team which finished top of the Conference League table – Strasbourg – received just four points.

Bonus points for progressing through the knockout rounds are also weighted. In the Champions League it is 1.5, Europa League 1, and Conference League 0.5.

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This means it is almost certain that one of the top European leagues will get the extra places each season, because they have more clubs in the Champions League.

How does Premier League race for Champions League places look?

Premier League leaders Arsenal (70 points) are nine points ahead of Manchester City (61) and both teams are looking nailed on for the Champions League qualification.

Manchester United (54) are third, ahead of Aston Villa (51).

Right now, the extra place in the Champions League would go to fifth-placed Liverpool (49).

Clubs are then lining up to try to get into the top five. Chelsea (48) are just behind in sixth place, followed by Brentford (45), Everton (43) and Newcastle (42).

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This article is the latest from BBC Sport’s Ask Me Anything team.

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