Since the 27th of February, Chinese military flights near Taiwan’s air defence identification zone (ADIZ) has been unusually low. The activity may be starting to pick back up now, although the trend is still emerging.

Chinese military flights near Taiwan increase after weeks of quiet

Yesterday saw an uptick in Chinese PLA activity with the Associated Press reporting, “Taiwan saw a surge of Chinese military planes near the island, its defence ministry said Sunday, after a sharp drop in flights over the past two weeks had sparked discussions among observers.”

IMPORTANT CONTEXT: Before this article sparks sensationalism, recognize this activity is only considered “large-scale” in relation to the slower activity over the last three weeks.

In fact, yesterday’s reported ADIZ numbers were only the 8th most significant in 2026 alone. https://t.co/a1fCVMqmE5 pic.twitter.com/cgGjyY55Bh

— Taiwan Security Monitor (台灣安全觀測站) (@TaiwanMonitor) March 15, 2026

Some outlets called it a “large-scale” Chinese military aircraft presence near the island. However, this is misleading, at least by the island’s standards.

The open-source OSINT account, Taiwan Security Monitor, reported, “IMPORTANT CONTEXT: Before this article sparks sensationalism, recognise this activity is only considered ‘large-scale’ in relation to the slower activity over the last three weeks.”

The account said the “large-scale” presence is only enough to rank eighth so far in 2026.

Some 26 aircraft were detected around the island, with 16 entering Taiwan’s ADIZ, making it the most since the 25th of February, just before numbers unexpectedly dropped off.

If you needed any more evidence that Taiwan is not currently “completely surrounded” by the PLA, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense detected only two aircraft sorties operating around Taiwan today.

No aircraft were detected entering Taiwan’s ADIZ. https://t.co/nVFMSlmnQi

— Taiwan Security Monitor (台灣安全觀測站) (@TaiwanMonitor) March 16, 2026

By morning today (local time), the number of aircraft fell again to only two aircraft sorties detected operating around Taiwan, with none entering the island’s ADIZ.

Chinese military flights near Taiwan suddenly stopped

On the 11th of March, Taiwan Security Monitor wrote that for the fourth consecutive day, Taiwan’s MND had reported no PLA aircraft operating around the island. At the time, this extended the lull in activity around Taiwan to 11 of the last 12 days.

This lull in activity started on February 27th and was an unusually long pause in activity. This has drawn some attention from observers, leaving them befuddled as to the cause.

Taiwan Security Monitor stated that between the 27th of February and the 5th of March, there were “No supply flights, no repositioning of aircraft, and not even any training exercises.

It added that while there have been long pauses in ADIZ violations in the past, this has become extremely rare in recent years.

It’s important to note that ADIZ violations are considered to be directed at Taiwan politically. However, activity outside of Taiwan’s ADIZ is often just routine training flights or transits between coastal airbases. Even these weren’t recorded.

Why PLA aircraft activity slowed

It is unclear why China has decreased its activity. While there are several possible explanations, they are little more than educated guesses or speculation. Still, here are some explanations outlined by Taiwan Security Monitor.

Some have suggested it could have something to do with the ongoing leadership struggles in Beijing. The PLA has seen some of its highest leadership purged recently; it is unclear if this has had a paralysing effect on the military.

The lull also coincides with the beginning of the “Two Sessions,” which is an annual meeting of the National People’s Congress. This has historically been paired with lower ADIZ violations.

Additionally, it has been the holiday season in China with the Spring Festival and the beginning of the Lantern Festival.

NEW: Taiwan’s @MoNDefense plans to finish integrating the first domestically produced regional air defense system by next year, that includes Tien Kung III, Tien Kung IV, and Land Sword-II.

If successful, Taiwan can then link this system up with the US Integrated Battle Command… pic.twitter.com/sX1c0JRvst

— Jaime Ocon 歐海美 (@JaimeOcon1) March 15, 2026

Other suggestions have been that China is putting on a “best behaviour” ahead of the planned Trump-Xi meeting later this spring. It could be part of a truce as the US prepares a large arms sale to Taiwan. Among other things, Taiwan is upgrading to the F-16 Block 70 Viper.

The drop off is also happening at a time when Taiwan is debating its special defence budget, and could be some sort of signalling to the island. Yet another explanation is that it coincides with the US and Israel’s attack on Iran, and that China might be concerned about fuel use.

A final explanation worth mentioning is that China could be preparing a large exercise or even a military invasion.

It is not possible to say which of these explanations or a combination of explanations works best. The Associated Press speculated it could be a combination of the Two Sessions meeting and the upcoming Trump-Xi summit, but no one really seems to know.

Featured Image: Wikimedia Commons