It’s precariously looking like Marty Supreme could be shut out at the Oscars 2026, or at least that’s what many people are betting on. This is despite the film, directed by Josh Safdie and led by actor Timothée Chalamet, earning nominations in nine categories for the 98th Academy Awards, and Chalamet being one of the frontrunners for the Best Actor win. However, momentum is growing for Sinners — and more specifically, Michael B. Jordan — in the leadup to the award ceremony. Here’s why A24’s Marty Supreme could potentially win no awards at the upcoming Oscars, which will air on Sunday, March 15, on ABC and Hulu.

Marty Supreme is predicted to be shut out at the Oscars

The prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket believe that Marty Supreme will not receive any Oscars.

When asked the question of “How many Oscars will ‘Marty Supreme’ win?,” 57% of betters on Polymarket (as of March 11) say that it will take home exactly zero awards, with 39% believing that the film will manage to win one. The results on Kalshi reflect this as well — 54% of the vote think that it will get shut out, but 38% believe it will still manage to run away with one award.

Put another way, the question can be essentially rephased to whether or not Timothée Chalamet will be able to hold off Michael B. Jordan for the Best Actor category. As we noted in our breakdown of the odds for the 2026 Oscars, Marty Supreme doesn’t have much of a shot in any other category.

At the time, based on results from March 6, Chalamet held a thin lead of about 52% of the vote while Jordan wasn’t not far behind at around 38%. However, this prediction has flipped. Bets on Polymarket and Kalshi (on March 11) now believe Jordan has the edge at around 57% to 59% of the vote and Chalamet only having around 33% to 35%. That’s a shockingly wide swing from just five days ago.

At the start of the award season, Chalamet’s performance as American table tennis player Marty Mauser in Marty Supreme received widespread acclaim. The actor received Best Actor wins from the Golden Globes (that is, Best Actor for a Musical or Comedy), London Film Critics Circle, Critics’ Choice Awards, in addition to a few others. This Best Actor Oscar nomination would be his third, with him earning nods in 2018 for Call Me By Your Name and 2025 for A Complete Unknown, so it felt like the Academy would feel pressured to (finally) give him the win. Also at the Golden Globes, Michael B. Jordan did not win in the Best Actor in a Drama category, losing to Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent, so it didn’t seem like the 39-year-old actor had the votes to seal the deal.

However, Jordan most recently won the coveted Best Actor prize over Chalamet at SAG-AFTRA’s 32nd Actor Awards on March 1, just a couple of weeks before the 2026 Oscars. His acceptance speech for the award has since gone viral, garnering over 1.3 million views on YouTube. It should be noted that the Academy’s final round of voting for the 2026 Oscars started on February 26 and ended on March 5, which would give many members the opportunity to hold their votes until knowing the results of the Actor Awards.

At the same ceremony, Sinners gained a huge momentum swing by winning the award for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in Motion Picture, notably over the star-studded cast for One Battle of Another. Earlier in the year, the film also broke the record for the having the most Oscar nominations at 16.

For these reasons, voters have shifted their bets on the Best Actor category at the Oscars and likewise their bets on Marty Supreme winning any Oscars at all.