Bitcoin’s recent tendency to move in step with U.S. equities does not erase its value as a portfolio diversifier.
That’s according to financial services and infrastructure firm NYDIG. In a weekly market note, Greg Cipolaro, the company’s global head of research, said correlations between bitcoin and stock benchmarks such as the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100, and the software-heavy IGV ETF have risen in recent months.
The shift has led some market watchers to argue that the cryptocurrency now trades like a proxy for technology stocks. But Cipolaro disputes that view.
Even with correlations near 0.5, equities explain only a small share of bitcoin’s movements, Cipolaro wrote. Statistically, that level means roughly one quarter of price changes are driven by stock market factors, leaving the remaining three quarters tied to forces unique to the crypto market.
Those forces include capital flows into bitcoin funds, shifts in derivatives positioning, network adoption trends and regulatory developments.
Cipolaro said recent price alignment likely reflects the current macro backdrop rather than a structural merger between asset classes. Both bitcoin and growth stocks respond to liquidity conditions and investor appetite for risk.
“That differentiation supports bitcoin’s role as a portfolio diversifier,” Cipolaro wrote. “While cross-asset correlations with equities are currently elevated, they remain far from determinative of bitcoin’s returns.”
Bitcoin’s evolving role
NYDIG’s note also touched on recent comments from prominent investors. Chamath Palihapitiya and Ray Dalio have sparked debate over whether early advocates have turned on the asset. Cipolaro argued instead that the debate has shifted, from whether bitcoin could survive to whether it could serve as a reserve asset for central banks.
Palihapitiya, an early supporter who back in 2013 called bitcoin “Gold 2.0,” recently questioned whether the asset fits the needs of sovereign balance sheets.
Dalio has raised similar concerns for years, pointing to volatility, regulatory risk and long-term technological threats such as advances in quantum computing.
Cipolaro said these critiques reflect changing expectations as bitcoin moves from a retail-driven asset to one held by institutions. Even so, he argued that bitcoin’s long-term growth does not depend on central bank adoption.
Instead, the network has expanded from individual users to family offices, asset managers, and exchange-traded funds, a path that differs from many past financial innovations, which began with institutional capital.
Central bank ownership may ultimately validate the asset class further, but it is not a prerequisite for continued growth,” Cipolaro wrote. “
“Bitcoin’s value comes from its globally distributed network, political neutrality, and technical and economic properties that enable censorship-resistant value transfer, digital scarcity, and independent operation free from any single government, institution, or monetary authority,” the note concluded.
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