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With 10 games of the Premier League season left, there is a growing narrative that Manchester United are the ‘favourites’ in the ongoing top-five race.
That prospect did not even exist just two months ago when Michael Carrick took charge.
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Now, I refuse to believe that United are favourites in a battle against Champions League stalwarts Chelsea and Premier League champions Liverpool.
However, Sunday’s 2-1 win over Crystal Palace put the Red Devils into pole position. Third in the Premier League for the first time since 2023.
And that, as well as the events of two nights prior, confirmed something for me. United’s path to a Champions League return is not what we thought it was. That’s where Aston Villa come into it.
For months, it has been believed that Villa, along with Arsenal and Manchester City, were the untouchable top three.
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That was a fair presumption, given Unai Emery’s men were 11 points ahead of United when Carrick arrived.
The debate has been over who will miss out in sixth between United, Liverpool and Chelsea. But it feels like the route has become less daunting.
I am now confident in saying that if United can stay above Villa, regardless of how Chelsea and Liverpool fare, Champions League football will return to M16.
After winning a stunning 12 games out of 13 to propel themselves into the conversation, Villa have just three victories in their past 10.
All season, xG merchants have been telling us that Villa are wildly over-performing based on the quality of the chances they create.
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The number of matches they were winning by just one goal suggested the same. It is now levelling itself out, and United are capitalising.
There will come a point when Emery can’t stop the rot in the Premier League and all focus turns towards the Europa League.
Not only is the prize silverware, but also Champions League football. That will work massively in Europe-less United’s favour.
Right now, United are above all three rivals, and it’s hard to imagine Villa, at least, reclaiming their advantage come May.
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